Football · Italy Serie D · 07/11, 16:30

Prediction: USD Fezzanese vs Borgosesia

Team pages: USD Fezzanese · Borgosesia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

USD Fezzanese1.29

Borgosesia1.11

1X2

40% 29% 31%

USD Fezzanese Draw Borgosesia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

USD Fezzanese 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DWWLLLLLWL

Borgosesia 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDDWLLWWL

Head-to-head

USD Fezzanese 3–1–2 Borgosesia (6 last)

Borgosesia0-1USD Fezzanese
USD Fezzanese2-0Borgosesia
Borgosesia1-0USD Fezzanese
USD Fezzanese1-0Borgosesia
Borgosesia2-2USD Fezzanese
Borgosesia4-0USD Fezzanese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · USD Fezzanese 1453 · Borgosesia 1489

	USD Fezzanese	Draw	Borgosesia
Our model	39%	30%	30%
Market	40%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours USD Fezzanese: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	USD Fezzanese	Borgosesia
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/25/63%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.35 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:45 +23’	2.25	3.10	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:41 +9’	2.32	2.97	2.85
14:33 +25’	2.35▲	3.01▲	2.89▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · USD Fezzanese 3–1–2 Borgosesia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/24 Italy Serie D	Borgosesia	0-1 HT 0-0	USD Fezzanese
04/10/23 Italy Serie D	USD Fezzanese	2-0	Borgosesia
06/04/23 Italy Serie D	Borgosesia	1-0	USD Fezzanese
27/11/22 Italy Serie D	USD Fezzanese	1-0 HT 1-0	Borgosesia
08/12/19 Italy Serie D	Borgosesia	2-2	USD Fezzanese
10/03/19 Italy Serie D	Borgosesia	4-0	USD Fezzanese

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	10	7	2	1	25	7	23
2	Sambiase	10	7	2	1	17	8	23
3	Vibonese	10	6	3	1	22	9	21
4	Calcio Avola 1949	10	6	1	3	16	14	19
5	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	10	5	3	2	16	8	18
6	Milazzo	10	5	1	4	11	12	16
7	Igea Virtus	10	4	3	3	23	21	15
8	ASD Licata	10	4	2	4	10	17	14
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	9	4	2	3	12	10	14
10	Città di Gela	10	3	4	3	11	8	12
11	Nissa FC	10	3	3	4	16	14	12
12	Siracusa	10	5	3	2	17	10	11
13	Vigor Lamezia	10	2	2	6	10	18	8
14	ASD CastrumFavara	10	2	2	6	11	17	8
15	Modica	9	2	1	6	7	12	7
16	Trapani	10	3	2	5	7	14	6
17	ASD Ragusa	10	0	3	7	9	21	3
18	Enna Calcio	10	0	3	7	4	24	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	USD Fezzanese	Borgosesia
Asti	0-2 L	3-0 W
ASD Millesimo Calcio	0-4 L	0-3 L
Alessandria	0-2 L	1-3 L
Valenzana	1-2 L	2-1 W
ASD Imperia	0-2 L	4-2 W
ASDC Gozzano	0-2 L	0-0 D
Sestri Levante	3-0 W	0-1 L
Chisola	2-0 W	2-2 D
AC Bra	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 6 L	3 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Borgosesia (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

USD Fezzanese

DWWLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Asti Italy Serie D	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
25/10	GSD Lascaris Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/10	ASD Millesimo Calcio Italy Serie D	0-3	0-4	5	4	L
11/10	Alessandria Italy Serie D	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
04/10	Valenzana Italy Serie D	1-1	1-2	8	8	L
27/09	ASD Imperia Italy Serie D	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
21/09	ASDC Gozzano Italy Serie D	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
16/09	Sestri Levante Italy Serie D	–	3-0	–	–	W
13/09	Chisola Italy Serie D	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
06/09	AC Bra Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	4	7	D

Borgosesia

DLDDWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Alessandria Italy Serie D	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
25/10	Asti Italy Serie D	–	3-0	–	–	W
18/10	ASD Imperia Italy Serie D	–	4-2	–	–	W
11/10	ASD Millesimo Calcio Italy Serie D	–	0-3	–	–	L
04/10	Sestri Levante Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
27/09	Valenzana Italy Serie D	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
20/09	AC Bra Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
16/09	ASDC Gozzano Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	ACSD Saluzzo Italy Serie D	–	0-2	–	–	L
06/09	Chisola Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in USD Fezzanese vs Borgosesia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a USD Fezzanese win (40%). Probabilities: USD Fezzanese 40%, draw 29%, Borgosesia 31%.

How many goals are expected in USD Fezzanese vs Borgosesia?

The model expects 2.4 goals (USD Fezzanese 1.29 · Borgosesia 1.11), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in USD Fezzanese vs Borgosesia?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.