Football · Italy Serie D · 15/11, 17:30

Prediction: Virtus Verona vs US Fiorenzuola

Team pages: Virtus Verona

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

Virtus Verona1.26

US Fiorenzuola0.79

1X2

47% 29% 23%

Virtus Verona Draw US Fiorenzuola

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Virtus Verona 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDWLLDWLLL

US Fiorenzuola 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDDDLWLL

Head-to-head

Virtus Verona 2–1–1 US Fiorenzuola (4 last)

US Fiorenzuola1-1Virtus Verona
Virtus Verona1-0US Fiorenzuola
US Fiorenzuola1-0Virtus Verona
Virtus Verona2-1US Fiorenzuola

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Virtus Verona 1469 · US Fiorenzuola 1445

	Virtus Verona	Draw	US Fiorenzuola
Our model	46%	32%	22%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Virtus Verona: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Virtus Verona	US Fiorenzuola
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	0.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	14/29/57%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.4	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.85▲	Bet365 1.85
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	4.20 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
08:02 +5’	1.73	3.40	4.20
05:18	1.85▲	3.30▼	3.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Virtus Verona 2–1–1 US Fiorenzuola

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/02/24 Italy Serie C Group A	US Fiorenzuola	1-1 HT 1-0	Virtus Verona
20/10/23 Italy Serie C Group A	Virtus Verona	1-0 HT 0-0	US Fiorenzuola
06/03/22 Italy Serie C Group A	US Fiorenzuola	1-0 HT 0-0	Virtus Verona
24/10/21 Italy Serie C Group A	Virtus Verona	2-1 HT 2-0	US Fiorenzuola

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	11	8	2	1	28	7	26
2	Sambiase	11	8	2	1	19	8	26
3	Vibonese	11	7	3	1	24	10	24
4	Calcio Avola 1949	11	6	1	4	17	16	19
5	Milazzo	11	6	1	4	14	13	19
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
7	Igea Virtus	11	5	3	3	25	22	18
8	Città di Gela	11	4	4	3	13	9	15
9	Siracusa	11	6	3	2	18	10	14
10	ASD Licata	11	4	2	5	11	22	14
11	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
12	Nissa FC	11	3	3	5	16	15	12
13	Modica	10	3	1	6	12	13	10
14	Trapani	11	4	2	5	9	14	9
15	Vigor Lamezia	11	2	2	7	11	21	8
16	ASD CastrumFavara	11	2	2	7	12	19	8
17	ASD Ragusa	11	0	3	8	9	23	3
18	Enna Calcio	11	0	3	8	4	27	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Virtus Verona	US Fiorenzuola
ASD Nibbiano e Valtidone	0-1 L	0-1 L
AC Chievo Verona	1-1 D	1-2 L
ASD Calcio Pavonese	0-1 L	1-2 L
Club Milano	1-0 W	1-2 L
Rovato Vertovese SSD	1-1 D	2-1 W
Piacenza	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Virtus Verona (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Virtus Verona

WDWLLDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	AC Leon Monza Brianza Italy Serie D	1-2	1-4	6	5	L
01/11	AC Milan U23 Italy Serie D	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/10	ASD Nibbiano e Valtidone Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	9	1	L
18/10	Tritium Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/10	AC Chievo Verona Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
04/10	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D	–	0-3	–	–	L
27/09	ASD Calcio Pavonese Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
20/09	Club Milano Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
16/09	Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	Piacenza Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	2	3	W

US Fiorenzuola

LLLDDDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Club Milano Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
31/10	AC Chievo Verona Italy Serie D	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
25/10	Rovato Vertovese SSD Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
18/10	ASD Calcio Pavonese Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/10	Piacenza Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
04/10	ASD Villa D'Alme Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
27/09	ASD Caldiero Terme Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
20/09	ASD Brusaporto Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
16/09	Pro Palazzo Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
13/09	ASD Nibbiano e Valtidone Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Virtus Verona vs US Fiorenzuola?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Virtus Verona win (47%). Probabilities: Virtus Verona 47%, draw 29%, US Fiorenzuola 23%.

How many goals are expected in Virtus Verona vs US Fiorenzuola?

The model expects 2.05 goals (Virtus Verona 1.26 · US Fiorenzuola 0.79), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Virtus Verona vs US Fiorenzuola?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.