Football · Israel Leumit Liga · 06/11, 14:00

Prediction: SC Kiryat Yam vs MS Ashdod

Team pages: SC Kiryat Yam · MS Ashdod

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

SC Kiryat Yam1.32

MS Ashdod2.28

1X2

20% 22% 58%

SC Kiryat Yam Draw MS Ashdod

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Kiryat Yam 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWDWLL

MS Ashdod 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWDWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Kiryat Yam 1516 · MS Ashdod 1612

	SC Kiryat Yam	Draw	MS Ashdod
Our model	21%	21%	58%
Market	20%	23%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MS Ashdod (rating 1516 vs 1612).
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Kiryat Yam	MS Ashdod
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 2.1	2.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.2	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.00

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.57 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.30
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:37 +28’	4.50	4.00	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:18 +47’	5.57	4.30	1.49

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Israel Leumit Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MS Ashdod	12	10	1	1	26	9	31
2	Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv	12	8	3	1	27	12	27
3	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	12	8	2	2	29	20	26
4	Hapoel Raanana	12	7	1	4	25	16	22
5	Hapoel Rishon Lezion	12	6	4	2	21	15	22
6	Hapoel Afula	12	6	3	3	19	15	21
7	SC Kiryat Yam	12	6	1	5	30	24	19
8	Maccabi Bnei Raina	12	5	3	4	21	15	18
9	Hapoel Kfar Saba	12	5	0	7	20	24	15
10	Maccabi Achi Nazareth	12	4	2	6	15	21	14
11	SC Kfar Qasim	12	4	1	7	15	15	13
12	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	12	2	5	5	11	14	11
13	Ironi Modiin	12	3	2	7	17	26	11
14	Maccabi Herzliya	12	2	4	6	10	15	10
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	12	3	0	9	8	25	9
16	Hapoel Akko	12	0	2	10	2	30	2

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Kiryat Yam	MS Ashdod
Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv	1-5 L	3-1 W
SC Kfar Qasim	2-1 W	1-0 W
Maccabi Kiryat Gat	2-2 D	0-0 D
Hapoel Kfar Saba	2-0 W	4-2 W
Maccabi Herzliya	3-1 W	1-0 W
Ironi Modiin	3-2 W	3-1 W
Hapoel Rishon Lezion	2-4 L	3-2 W
Hapoel Akko	5-0 W	4-0 W
Hapoel Kfar Shalem	2-3 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 3 L	8 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: MS Ashdod (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Kiryat Yam

LWLWWWDWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Hapoel Raanana Israel Leumit Liga	0-2	2-3	5	7	L
23/10	Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv Israel Leumit Liga	1-2	1-5	6	4	L
16/10	SC Kfar Qasim Israel Leumit Liga	2-1	2-1	3	7	W
09/10	Maccabi Kiryat Gat Israel Leumit Liga	0-1	2-2	5	6	D
01/10	Hapoel Kfar Saba Israel Leumit Liga	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
24/09	Maccabi Herzliya Israel Leumit Liga	1-1	3-1	4	8	W
17/09	Ironi Modiin Israel Leumit Liga	2-1	3-2	6	4	W
10/09	Hapoel Rishon Lezion Israel Leumit Liga	0-2	2-4	1	3	L
06/09	Hapoel Akko Israel Leumit Liga	2-0	5-0	2	3	W
30/08	Hapoel Kfar Shalem Israel Leumit Liga	1-2	2-3	7	3	L

MS Ashdod

WWWWWWWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv Israel Leumit Liga	1-1	3-1	2	6	W
23/10	SC Kfar Qasim Israel Leumit Liga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
16/10	Maccabi Kiryat Gat Israel Leumit Liga	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
12/10	Hapoel Kfar Saba Israel Leumit Liga	2-1	4-2	3	4	W
01/10	Maccabi Herzliya Israel Leumit Liga	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
24/09	Ironi Modiin Israel Leumit Liga	1-0	3-1	3	5	W
17/09	Hapoel Rishon Lezion Israel Leumit Liga	1-1	3-2	4	8	W
14/09	Hapoel Akko Israel Leumit Liga	2-0	4-0	9	7	W
06/09	Hapoel Kfar Shalem Israel Leumit Liga	2-0	4-0	4	7	W
31/08	Maccabi Bnei Raina Israel Leumit Liga	2-0	2-1	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Kiryat Yam vs MS Ashdod?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MS Ashdod win (58%). Probabilities: SC Kiryat Yam 20%, draw 22%, MS Ashdod 58%.

How many goals are expected in SC Kiryat Yam vs MS Ashdod?

The model expects 3.6 goals (SC Kiryat Yam 1.32 · MS Ashdod 2.28), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Kiryat Yam vs MS Ashdod?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.