Football · Israel Leumit Liga · 09/11, 18:00

Prediction: SC Kfar Qasim vs Hapoel Afula

Team pages: SC Kfar Qasim · Hapoel Afula

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

SC Kfar Qasim1.42

Hapoel Afula1.37

1X2

37% 28% 35%

SC Kfar Qasim Draw Hapoel Afula

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Kfar Qasim 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWLLLL

Hapoel Afula 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDWDWDLW

Head-to-head

SC Kfar Qasim 2–1–3 Hapoel Afula (6 last)

Hapoel Afula2-0SC Kfar Qasim
SC Kfar Qasim1-2Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula0-4SC Kfar Qasim
Hapoel Afula0-1SC Kfar Qasim
Hapoel Afula2-0SC Kfar Qasim
SC Kfar Qasim0-0Hapoel Afula

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Kfar Qasim 1472 · Hapoel Afula 1540

	SC Kfar Qasim	Draw	Hapoel Afula
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Afula (rating 1472 vs 1540).
H2H favours Hapoel Afula: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Kfar Qasim	Hapoel Afula
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.7	0.9 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.2	5.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.25

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.40▼	Bet365 2.40
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.40
2	2.25 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.78 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:06 +18’	2.75	3.25	2.25
04:12 +8’	2.40▼	3.25	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:54 +26’	2.32	3.34	2.83
08:17 +66’	2.35▲	3.30▼	2.81▼
12:49 +5’	2.32▼	3.40▲	2.78▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Kfar Qasim 2–1–3 Hapoel Afula

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Israel Leumit Liga	Hapoel Afula	2-0 HT 2-0	SC Kfar Qasim
30/01/26 Israel Leumit Liga	SC Kfar Qasim	1-2 HT 0-1	Hapoel Afula
28/09/25 Israel Leumit Liga	Hapoel Afula	0-4 HT 0-3	SC Kfar Qasim
16/05/25 Israel Leumit Liga	Hapoel Afula	0-1 HT 0-1	SC Kfar Qasim
28/03/25 Israel Leumit Liga	Hapoel Afula	2-0 HT 1-0	SC Kfar Qasim
13/12/24 Israel Leumit Liga	SC Kfar Qasim	0-0 HT 0-0	Hapoel Afula

Standings · Israel Leumit Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MS Ashdod	13	10	1	2	26	13	31
2	Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv	13	9	3	1	29	13	30
3	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	13	9	2	2	30	20	29
4	Hapoel Raanana	13	8	1	4	27	17	25
5	SC Kiryat Yam	13	7	1	5	34	24	22
6	Hapoel Rishon Lezion	13	6	4	3	22	17	22
7	Hapoel Afula	12	6	3	3	19	15	21
8	Maccabi Bnei Raina	12	5	3	4	21	15	18
9	Hapoel Kfar Saba	12	5	0	7	20	24	15
10	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	13	3	5	5	13	15	14
11	Maccabi Achi Nazareth	13	4	2	7	16	23	14
12	SC Kfar Qasim	12	4	1	7	15	15	13
13	Ironi Modiin	12	3	2	7	17	26	11
14	Maccabi Herzliya	13	2	4	7	10	16	10
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	13	3	0	10	9	27	9
16	Hapoel Akko	12	0	2	10	2	30	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Kfar Qasim	Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Raanana	2-1 W	3-2 W
Maccabi Kiryat Gat	1-0 W	1-0 W
Hapoel Kfar Saba	4-2 W	0-2 L
Maccabi Herzliya	0-1 L	0-0 D
Ironi Modiin	0-0 D	2-1 W
Hapoel Rishon Lezion	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Afula (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Kfar Qasim

LDLWWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Maccabi Achi Nazareth Israel Leumit Liga	0-1	2-3	5	10	L
23/10	MS Ashdod Israel Leumit Liga	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
16/10	SC Kiryat Yam Israel Leumit Liga	1-2	1-2	5	7	L
09/10	Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv Israel Leumit Liga	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
01/10	Hapoel Raanana Israel Leumit Liga	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
28/09	Maccabi Kiryat Gat Israel Leumit Liga	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/09	Hapoel Kfar Saba Israel Leumit Liga	1-0	4-2	6	5	W
14/09	Maccabi Herzliya Israel Leumit Liga	0-1	0-1	11	5	L
07/09	Ironi Modiin Israel Leumit Liga	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
30/08	Hapoel Rishon Lezion Israel Leumit Liga	0-2	1-2	5	5	L

Hapoel Afula

WLLDWDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Maccabi Kiryat Gat Israel Leumit Liga	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
23/10	Hapoel Kfar Saba Israel Leumit Liga	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
16/10	Maccabi Herzliya Israel Leumit Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
09/10	Ironi Modiin Israel Leumit Liga	1-0	2-1	2	11	W
01/10	Hapoel Rishon Lezion Israel Leumit Liga	1-1	2-2	0	4	D
24/09	Hapoel Akko Israel Leumit Liga	1-0	3-0	2	6	W
17/09	Hapoel Kfar Shalem Israel Leumit Liga	1-2	3-3	3	5	D
10/09	Maccabi Bnei Raina Israel Leumit Liga	2-1	2-4	5	8	L
06/09	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Israel Leumit Liga	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
31/08	Hapoel Raanana Israel Leumit Liga	3-0	3-2	3	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Kfar Qasim vs Hapoel Afula?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SC Kfar Qasim win (37%). Probabilities: SC Kfar Qasim 37%, draw 28%, Hapoel Afula 35%.

How many goals are expected in SC Kfar Qasim vs Hapoel Afula?

The model expects 2.79 goals (SC Kfar Qasim 1.42 · Hapoel Afula 1.37), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Kfar Qasim vs Hapoel Afula?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.