Football · Uruguay Segunda · 12/11, 20:30

Prediction: Cerrito vs Colon FC

Team pages: Cerrito · Colon FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Cerrito0.81

Colon FC1.53

1X2

20% 26% 54%

Cerrito Draw Colon FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Cerrito 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDDLWWLDD

Colon FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLDWWLW

Head-to-head

Cerrito 1–1–4 Colon FC (6 last)

Colon FC1-0Cerrito
Colon FC1-0Cerrito
Cerrito1-2Colon FC
Cerrito0-2Colon FC
Colon FC0-2Cerrito
Cerrito1-1Colon FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cerrito 1503 · Colon FC 1512

	Cerrito	Draw	Colon FC
Our model	19%	28%	53%
Market	20%	25%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Colon FC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 13 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cerrito	Colon FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 3.2	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.7 / 0.7	6.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.60

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.77
2	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.80 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.8% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
23:00 +1’	4.33	3.60	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:03	2.34	3.20	2.90
22:56 +6’	4.30▲	4.02▲	1.64▼
23:53 +9’	4.23▼	4.01▼	1.65▲
02:57 +4’	3.68▼	3.77▼	1.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerrito 1–1–4 Colon FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Uruguay Segunda	Colon FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Cerrito
26/10/25 Uruguay Segunda	Colon FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Cerrito
02/08/25 Uruguay Segunda	Cerrito	1-2 HT 0-2	Colon FC
26/09/24 Uruguay Segunda	Cerrito	0-2 HT 0-1	Colon FC
09/06/24 Uruguay Segunda	Colon FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Cerrito
21/04/24 Uruguay Segunda	Cerrito	1-1 HT 1-0	Colon FC

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cerrito	Colon FC
Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1-1 D	1-1 D
Rentistas	2-2 D	0-1 L
Miramar Misiones	0-1 L	1-0 W
Tacuarembo	2-1 W	1-0 W
CA River Plate	1-1 D	0-3 L
CA Atenas	0-0 D	1-0 W
Paysandu FC	1-2 L	2-3 L
Huracan DPA	1-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Colon FC (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cerrito

LLDDLWWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
25/10	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-2	1	8	D
18/10	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
10/10	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
04/10	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	2-0	3-1	1	9	W
27/09	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-2	3	9	L
20/09	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
13/09	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
05/09	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-2	1-2	4	6	L
29/08	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-2	3	12	L

Colon FC

WWLDLDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	8	9	W
27/10	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-3	1	7	L
17/10	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	2-0	3-0	6	8	W
10/10	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-1	3-1	2	7	W
04/10	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
26/09	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-3	9	8	L
19/09	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
13/09	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
06/09	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
29/08	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cerrito vs Colon FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Colon FC win (54%). Probabilities: Cerrito 20%, draw 26%, Colon FC 54%.

How many goals are expected in Cerrito vs Colon FC?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Cerrito 0.81 · Colon FC 1.53), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cerrito vs Colon FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.