Football · Uruguay Segunda · 11/11, 20:30

Prediction: La Luz vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Team pages: La Luz · Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

La Luz1.03

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1.03

1X2

35% 31% 35%

La Luz Draw Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

La Luz 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLWWDWWL

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWDLLD

Head-to-head

La Luz 1–3–2 Atletico Fenix Montevideo (6 last)

Atletico Fenix Montevideo0-0La Luz
Atletico Fenix Montevideo0-0La Luz
Atletico Fenix Montevideo0-2La Luz
La Luz2-2Atletico Fenix Montevideo
La Luz0-2Atletico Fenix Montevideo
La Luz0-2Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · La Luz 1526 · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1463

	La Luz	Draw	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Our model	33%	33%	33%
Market	36%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours La Luz (rating 1526 vs 1463).
H2H favours Atletico Fenix Montevideo: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	La Luz	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/67/11%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	2.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.2	6.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.10

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:00 +3’	2.50	3.10	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · La Luz 1–3–2 Atletico Fenix Montevideo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0-0 HT 0-0	La Luz
22/03/26 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0-0 HT 0-0	La Luz
27/09/25 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0-2 HT 0-0	La Luz
06/07/25 Uruguay Segunda	La Luz	2-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
20/04/25 Uruguay Segunda	La Luz	0-2 HT 0-1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
07/12/23 Uruguay Clausura	La Luz	0-2 HT 0-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	6	3	2	1	13	7	11
2	Huracan DPA	6	2	4	0	9	6	10
3	Uruguay Montevideo	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
4	Cerrito	6	2	3	1	8	8	9
5	La Luz	6	1	4	1	5	6	7
6	CA Atenas	6	1	1	4	5	11	4
7	Tacuarembo	6	0	3	3	5	9	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	La Luz	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Rentistas	0-2 L	1-2 L
Miramar Misiones	3-0 W	1-1 D
CA River Plate	3-2 W	1-0 W
Cerrito	2-1 W	1-1 D
CA Atenas	0-1 L	0-4 L
Paysandu FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Huracan DPA	1-3 L	0-0 D
Uruguay Montevideo	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: La Luz (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

La Luz

DLWLWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
25/10	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	2-0	3-0	1	6	W
17/10	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
11/10	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
05/10	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-2	3-2	8	7	W
27/09	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-1	1	9	W
20/09	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	11	4	L
12/09	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	–	1-0	–	–	W
04/09	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-1	1-3	9	8	L
29/08	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	8	7	D

Atletico Fenix Montevideo

DLWDLWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
25/10	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-3	0-4	6	5	L
17/10	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
12/10	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
04/10	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	7	8	W
27/09	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-3	3	13	L
19/09	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
13/09	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
06/09	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-2	9	8	L
30/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	6	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in La Luz vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a La Luz win (35%). Probabilities: La Luz 35%, draw 31%, Atletico Fenix Montevideo 35%.

How many goals are expected in La Luz vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

The model expects 2.05 goals (La Luz 1.03 · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1.03), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in La Luz vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.