Football · Uruguay Segunda · 11/11, 20:30

Prediction: Tacuarembo vs Miramar Misiones

Team pages: Tacuarembo · Miramar Misiones

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Tacuarembo0.91

Miramar Misiones1.12

1X2

29% 31% 40%

Tacuarembo Draw Miramar Misiones

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Tacuarembo 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDDLLLDD

Miramar Misiones 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWDWLD

Head-to-head

Tacuarembo 1–1–4 Miramar Misiones (6 last)

Miramar Misiones1-1Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo1-3Miramar Misiones
Miramar Misiones3-2Tacuarembo
Miramar Misiones4-2Tacuarembo
Miramar Misiones3-2Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo2-0Miramar Misiones

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tacuarembo 1448 · Miramar Misiones 1512

	Tacuarembo	Draw	Miramar Misiones
Our model	28%	33%	39%
Market	30%	29%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Miramar Misiones (rating 1448 vs 1512).
H2H favours Miramar Misiones: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tacuarembo	Miramar Misiones
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 2.9	1.5 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	6.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.10

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
16:52 +11’	3.00	3.10	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tacuarembo 1–1–4 Miramar Misiones

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Uruguay Segunda	Miramar Misiones	1-1 HT 0-1	Tacuarembo
08/10/23 Uruguay Segunda	Tacuarembo	1-3	Miramar Misiones
20/05/23 Uruguay Segunda	Miramar Misiones	3-2 HT 1-2	Tacuarembo
25/03/23 Uruguay Segunda	Miramar Misiones	4-2 HT 3-0	Tacuarembo
17/10/21 Uruguay Segunda B Nacional	Miramar Misiones	3-2 HT 1-1	Tacuarembo
27/10/18 Uruguay Segunda	Tacuarembo	2-0	Miramar Misiones

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tacuarembo	Miramar Misiones
Plaza Colonia	1-1 D	1-1 D
La Luz	0-1 L	0-3 L
Cerrito	1-2 L	1-0 W
CA Atenas	0-1 L	1-1 D
Paysandu FC	2-2 D	1-0 W
Huracan DPA	1-1 D	1-2 L
Uruguay Montevideo	2-2 D	1-0 W
Club Oriental	0-1 L	3-1 W
Colon FC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Miramar Misiones (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tacuarembo

LLDDDLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-1	1-1	3	8	D
25/10	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
17/10	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
10/10	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-2	1	6	L
04/10	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
29/09	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	2-1	2-2	2	8	D
20/09	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
12/09	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-2	5	1	D
06/09	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
29/08	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-1	2	5	L

Miramar Misiones

DLWWLWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
25/10	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-2	0-3	3	6	L
18/10	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
11/10	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
03/10	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
28/09	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
19/09	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	7	10	W
12/09	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	1-1	3-1	1	8	W
06/09	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
30/08	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tacuarembo vs Miramar Misiones?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Miramar Misiones win (40%). Probabilities: Tacuarembo 29%, draw 31%, Miramar Misiones 40%.

How many goals are expected in Tacuarembo vs Miramar Misiones?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Tacuarembo 0.91 · Miramar Misiones 1.12), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Tacuarembo vs Miramar Misiones?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.