Football · Panama LPF · 14/11, 22:00

Prediction: Union Cocle vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Team pages: Union Cocle · CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Union Cocle1.02

CA Independiente de la Chorrera1.76

1X2

21% 25% 54%

Union Cocle Draw CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Cocle 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLLLLL

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWLDWWWW

Head-to-head

Union Cocle 0–2–1 CA Independiente de la Chorrera (3 last)

CA Independiente de la Chorrera3-0Union Cocle
Union Cocle0-0CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera0-0Union Cocle

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Cocle 1379 · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1545

	Union Cocle	Draw	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
Our model	21%	26%	53%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Independiente de la Chorrera (rating 1379 vs 1545).
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Cocle	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.4	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.7	2.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	6.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.80

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.82 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:54 +19’	4.10	3.80	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:08 +9’	3.97	3.54	1.82

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Cocle 0–2–1 CA Independiente de la Chorrera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	3-0 HT 1-0	Union Cocle
05/04/26 Panama LPF	Union Cocle	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
01/02/26 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Cocle

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	15	9	2	4	29	19	29
2	Veraguas CD	15	6	6	3	27	23	24
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	15	6	5	4	27	20	23
4	CD Universitario	15	4	5	6	15	16	17
5	Herrera FC	15	3	2	10	16	38	11
6	Union Cocle	15	1	2	12	11	31	5

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Cocle	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
San Francisco FC	1-2 L	3-1 W
CD Universitario	0-2 L	1-0 W
Veraguas CD	0-3 L	3-1 W
Herrera FC	2-3 L	5-1 W
Sporting San Miguelito	1-3 L	4-3 W
Plaza Amador	1-2 L	2-2 D
UMECIT	0-1 L	0-2 L
CD Arabe Unido	1-4 L	1-1 D
Tauro FC	0-2 L	1-2 L
Alianza FC Panama	2-2 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 9 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CA Independiente de la Chorrera (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Cocle

DLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
31/10	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
27/10	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	0-3	0-3	2	4	L
18/10	Herrera FC Panama LPF	2-1	2-3	5	2	L
06/10	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	1-3	1-3	2	6	L
27/09	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	0	4	L
22/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
12/09	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-1	1-4	2	4	L
06/09	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	4	12	L
30/08	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-0	2-2	5	6	D

CA Independiente de la Chorrera

LLDWLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Herrera FC Panama LPF	4-0	5-1	–	–	W
02/11	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-0	3-1	6	6	W
25/10	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
18/10	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	3-0	3-1	3	10	W
05/10	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
29/09	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-2	10	6	L
21/09	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	2-0	4-3	4	4	W
13/09	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
08/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
29/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	6	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Cocle vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CA Independiente de la Chorrera win (54%). Probabilities: Union Cocle 21%, draw 25%, CA Independiente de la Chorrera 54%.

How many goals are expected in Union Cocle vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Union Cocle 1.02 · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1.76), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Cocle vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.