Football · Serbia Super Liga · 08/11, 17:00

Prediction: Partizan Belgrade vs FK Macva Sabac

Team pages: Partizan Belgrade · FK Macva Sabac

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Partizan Belgrade2.5

FK Macva Sabac0.8

1X2

74% 17% 9%

Partizan Belgrade Draw FK Macva Sabac

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Partizan Belgrade 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWLLWW

FK Macva Sabac 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LWDDLLDDLL

Head-to-head

Partizan Belgrade 5–1 FK Macva Sabac (6 last)

FK Macva Sabac1-3Partizan Belgrade
FK Macva Sabac2-0Partizan Belgrade
FK Macva Sabac1-2Partizan Belgrade
Partizan Belgrade2-0FK Macva Sabac
FK Macva Sabac0-2Partizan Belgrade
Partizan Belgrade4-0FK Macva Sabac

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Partizan Belgrade 1509 · FK Macva Sabac 1450

	Partizan Belgrade	Draw	FK Macva Sabac
Our model	74%	17%	9%
Market	74%	17%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Partizan Belgrade (rating 1509 vs 1450).
H2H favours Partizan Belgrade: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Partizan Belgrade	FK Macva Sabac
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.3	1 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	5.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.50

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +4’	1.25	5.50	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Partizan Belgrade 5–0–1 FK Macva Sabac

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Macva Sabac	1-3 HT 0-1	Partizan Belgrade
28/10/25 Serbia Cup	FK Macva Sabac	2-0 HT 1-0	Partizan Belgrade
16/04/21 Serbia Super Liga	FK Macva Sabac	1-2 HT 1-1	Partizan Belgrade
31/10/20 Serbia Super Liga	Partizan Belgrade	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Macva Sabac
01/12/19 Serbia Super Liga	FK Macva Sabac	0-2 HT 0-1	Partizan Belgrade
04/08/19 Serbia Super Liga	Partizan Belgrade	4-0 HT 2-0	FK Macva Sabac

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	14	13	1	0	37	6	40
2	Vojvodina	14	10	2	2	30	12	32
3	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	13	8	2	3	21	11	26
4	FK Radnicki 1923	14	7	2	5	21	16	23
5	IMT Novi Belgrade	14	6	4	4	15	9	22
6	FK Cukaricki	14	5	4	5	19	20	19
7	Mladost Lucani	13	4	6	3	12	18	18
8	Partizan Belgrade	14	5	2	7	24	24	17
9	FK Radnik Surdulica	13	4	5	4	17	17	17
10	FK Novi Pazar	14	4	4	6	13	16	16
11	OFK Beograd	14	2	5	7	14	25	11
12	FK Macva Sabac	14	2	4	8	11	25	10
13	Radnicki Nis	13	2	2	9	9	23	8
14	FK Zemun	14	1	3	10	7	28	6

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Partizan Belgrade	FK Macva Sabac
FK Zemun	3-0 W	0-1 L
Radnicki Nis	3-2 W	1-0 W
FK Cukaricki	0-2 L	2-2 D
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	0-1 L	0-2 L
FK Novi Pazar	1-0 W	1-1 D
FK Radnik Surdulica	4-4 D	1-2 L
Crvena Zvezda	1-2 L	2-4 L
OFK Beograd	3-1 W	1-1 D
Mladost Lucani	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Partizan Belgrade (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Partizan Belgrade

LWLLDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
28/10	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	2-0	3-2	6	4	W
24/10	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-2	0-2	12	5	L
18/10	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	8	10	L
11/10	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
19/09	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	1-3	4-4	5	8	D
13/09	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-2	2-3	8	12	L
06/09	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	1-2	1-2	5	9	L
31/08	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	1-0	3-1	6	4	W
23/08	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	0-2	1-3	2	3	L

FK Macva Sabac

LWDDLLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	1-2	2-4	2	2	L
23/10	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
17/10	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-1	7	5	D
10/10	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	1-2	2-2	2	8	D
20/09	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-2	6	6	L
11/09	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-2	0	5	L
05/09	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
29/08	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
22/08	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
15/08	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-2	0	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Partizan Belgrade vs FK Macva Sabac?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Partizan Belgrade win (74%). Probabilities: Partizan Belgrade 74%, draw 17%, FK Macva Sabac 9%.

How many goals are expected in Partizan Belgrade vs FK Macva Sabac?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Partizan Belgrade 2.5 · FK Macva Sabac 0.8), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Partizan Belgrade vs FK Macva Sabac?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.