Football · Serbia Super Liga · 08/11, 13:00

Prediction: FK Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani

Team pages: FK Novi Pazar · Mladost Lucani

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

FK Novi Pazar1.4

Mladost Lucani0.95

1X2

47% 28% 25%

FK Novi Pazar Draw Mladost Lucani

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Novi Pazar 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWDDLLWL

Mladost Lucani 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLWDLD

Head-to-head

FK Novi Pazar 2–3–1 Mladost Lucani (6 last)

Mladost Lucani0-0FK Novi Pazar
Mladost Lucani3-1FK Novi Pazar
Mladost Lucani0-2FK Novi Pazar
FK Novi Pazar1-0Mladost Lucani
FK Novi Pazar1-1Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani1-1FK Novi Pazar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Novi Pazar 1508 · Mladost Lucani 1507

	FK Novi Pazar	Draw	Mladost Lucani
Our model	46%	30%	24%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Novi Pazar: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Novi Pazar	Mladost Lucani
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	1.8 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.4	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +14’	1.95	3.40	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Novi Pazar 2–3–1 Mladost Lucani

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Novi Pazar
28/06/26 Europe Friendlies	Mladost Lucani	3-1 HT 2-1	FK Novi Pazar
09/03/26 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Novi Pazar
04/10/25 Serbia Super Liga	FK Novi Pazar	1-0 HT 1-0	Mladost Lucani
08/07/25 Europe Friendlies	FK Novi Pazar	1-1 HT 1-1	Mladost Lucani
28/04/25 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Novi Pazar

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	14	13	1	0	37	6	40
2	Vojvodina	14	10	2	2	30	12	32
3	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	13	8	2	3	21	11	26
4	FK Radnicki 1923	14	7	2	5	21	16	23
5	IMT Novi Belgrade	14	6	4	4	15	9	22
6	FK Cukaricki	14	5	4	5	19	20	19
7	Mladost Lucani	13	4	6	3	12	18	18
8	Partizan Belgrade	14	5	2	7	24	24	17
9	FK Radnik Surdulica	13	4	5	4	17	17	17
10	FK Novi Pazar	14	4	4	6	13	16	16
11	OFK Beograd	14	2	5	7	14	25	11
12	FK Macva Sabac	14	2	4	8	11	25	10
13	Radnicki Nis	13	2	2	9	9	23	8
14	FK Zemun	14	1	3	10	7	28	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Novi Pazar	Mladost Lucani
FK Radnicki 1923	0-2 L	0-5 L
Radnicki Nis	2-0 W	1-0 W
IMT Novi Belgrade	1-2 L	0-2 L
Partizan Belgrade	0-1 L	3-1 W
FK Zemun	2-2 D	1-0 W
FK Cukaricki	1-1 D	2-2 D
FK Macva Sabac	1-1 D	2-1 W
Vojvodina	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Novi Pazar (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Novi Pazar

WLDWDDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
23/10	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
18/10	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-2	4	7	L
11/10	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
19/09	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-2	7	6	D
12/09	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
04/09	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
29/08	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
23/08	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
17/08	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-0	3	5	W

Mladost Lucani

DWWLWLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
18/10	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-5	1	2	L
12/10	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
20/09	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-1	1	6	W
12/09	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	0-3	0-5	6	6	L
05/09	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
30/08	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
23/08	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	2-0	3-1	0	3	W
16/08	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
09/08	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-2	10	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Novi Pazar win (47%). Probabilities: FK Novi Pazar 47%, draw 28%, Mladost Lucani 25%.

How many goals are expected in FK Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani?

The model expects 2.36 goals (FK Novi Pazar 1.4 · Mladost Lucani 0.95), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.