Football · Serbia Super Liga · 07/11, 18:00

Prediction: FK Zemun vs IMT Novi Belgrade

Team pages: FK Zemun · IMT Novi Belgrade

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.16Total

FK Zemun0.64

IMT Novi Belgrade1.53

1X2

16% 25% 59%

FK Zemun Draw IMT Novi Belgrade

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-1 16%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Zemun 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDLLWL

IMT Novi Belgrade 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDLDWWLD

Head-to-head

FK Zemun 0–1–2 IMT Novi Belgrade (3 last)

IMT Novi Belgrade4-0FK Zemun
IMT Novi Belgrade2-0FK Zemun
FK Zemun0-0IMT Novi Belgrade

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Zemun 1416 · IMT Novi Belgrade 1500

	FK Zemun	Draw	IMT Novi Belgrade
Our model	14%	28%	58%
Market	17%	23%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IMT Novi Belgrade (rating 1416 vs 1500).
H2H favours IMT Novi Belgrade: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Zemun	IMT Novi Belgrade
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.8	0.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.3	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.00

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.80

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:13 +3’	5.50	4.00	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Zemun 0–1–2 IMT Novi Belgrade

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Serbia Super Liga	IMT Novi Belgrade	4-0 HT 1-0	FK Zemun
07/04/21 Serbia Prva Liga	IMT Novi Belgrade	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Zemun
02/10/20 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Zemun	0-0 HT 0-0	IMT Novi Belgrade

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	14	13	1	0	37	6	40
2	Vojvodina	14	10	2	2	30	12	32
3	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	13	8	2	3	21	11	26
4	FK Radnicki 1923	14	7	2	5	21	16	23
5	IMT Novi Belgrade	14	6	4	4	15	9	22
6	FK Cukaricki	14	5	4	5	19	20	19
7	Mladost Lucani	13	4	6	3	12	18	18
8	Partizan Belgrade	14	5	2	7	24	24	17
9	FK Radnik Surdulica	13	4	5	4	17	17	17
10	FK Novi Pazar	14	4	4	6	13	16	16
11	OFK Beograd	14	2	5	7	14	25	11
12	FK Macva Sabac	14	2	4	8	11	25	10
13	Radnicki Nis	13	2	2	9	9	23	8
14	FK Zemun	14	1	3	10	7	28	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Zemun	IMT Novi Belgrade
FK Cukaricki	0-3 L	0-0 D
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	0-3 L	0-1 L
FK Novi Pazar	2-2 D	2-1 W
FK Radnik Surdulica	1-1 D	1-0 W
Vojvodina	1-2 L	1-1 D
Crvena Zvezda	0-2 L	0-1 L
OFK Beograd	0-1 L	1-1 D
Mladost Lucani	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 6 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: IMT Novi Belgrade (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Zemun

LLLLDDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
23/10	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
17/10	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-2	0-3	2	6	L
11/10	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
19/09	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-2	4	6	D
14/09	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
06/09	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
30/08	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
22/08	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
16/08	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	9	7	L

IMT Novi Belgrade

DLWDLDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
23/10	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	8	7	L
18/10	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-0	2-1	5	7	W
10/10	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
19/09	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-1	5	8	D
13/09	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
07/09	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-1	4	8	D
30/08	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
22/08	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
16/08	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Zemun vs IMT Novi Belgrade?

According to our model, the most likely result is an IMT Novi Belgrade win (59%). Probabilities: FK Zemun 16%, draw 25%, IMT Novi Belgrade 59%.

How many goals are expected in FK Zemun vs IMT Novi Belgrade?

The model expects 2.16 goals (FK Zemun 0.64 · IMT Novi Belgrade 1.53), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Zemun vs IMT Novi Belgrade?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.