Football · Mali Premiere Division · 01/11, 17:00

Prediction: Real Bamako vs Stade Malien

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.82Total

Real Bamako1.07

Stade Malien0.75

1X2

42% 33% 25%

Real Bamako Draw Stade Malien

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 56% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Bamako 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDWWLDWW

Stade Malien 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDDWWW

Head-to-head

Real Bamako 1–2–3 Stade Malien (6 last)

Stade Malien0-1Real Bamako
Real Bamako1-1Stade Malien
Real Bamako0-3Stade Malien
Stade Malien1-1Real Bamako
Stade Malien1-0Real Bamako
Real Bamako0-1Stade Malien

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Bamako 1552 · Stade Malien 1591

	Real Bamako	Draw	Stade Malien
Our model	41%	35%	24%
Market	43%	32%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 1.82 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Stade Malien: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Bamako	Stade Malien
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.6	1.6 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	1.3 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/63/25%	89/11/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	2 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X2.80

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.85

Under 1.751.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
04:52 +20’	2.10	2.80	3.50
06:08 +5’	2.15▲	2.80	3.40▼
12:23 +5’	2.10▼	2.80	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Bamako 1–2–3 Stade Malien

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Mali Premiere Division	Stade Malien	0-1 HT 0-0	Real Bamako
10/12/25 Mali Premiere Division	Real Bamako	1-1 HT 0-1	Stade Malien
16/03/25 Mali Premiere Division	Real Bamako	0-3 HT 0-1	Stade Malien
30/01/25 Mali Premiere Division	Stade Malien	1-1 HT 0-1	Real Bamako
19/05/24 Mali Premiere Division	Stade Malien	1-0 HT 0-0	Real Bamako
14/01/24 Mali Premiere Division	Real Bamako	0-1 HT 0-1	Stade Malien

Standings · Mali Premiere Division

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	D	Pts
1	AS Kayes	1	1	1
1	US Bougouba	1	1	1
3	Afrique Football Elite	0	0	0
3	AS Bakaridjan	0	0	0
3	AS Korofina	0	0	0
3	Real Bamako	0	0	0
3	Binga FC	0	0	0
3	Centre Sportif de Bamako	0	0	0
3	Derby Academie	0	0	0
3	Djoliba AC	0	0	0
3	FC Diarra	0	0	0
3	Onze Créateurs	0	0	0
3	Stade Malien	0	0	0
3	USFAS Bamako	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Bamako	Stade Malien
US Bougouba	4-0 W	3-0 W
Afrique Football Elite	0-0 D	1-0 W
Derby Academie	1-0 W	0-0 D
FC Diarra	2-1 W	2-0 W
Binga FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
AS Bakaridjan	1-1 D	2-0 W
USFAS Bamako	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Stade Malien (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Bamako

LDLDWWLDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/06	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	–	4-0	1	3	W
09/06	Djoliba AC Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
05/06	Afrique Football Elite Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
31/05	AS Korofina Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
25/05	Derby Academie Mali Premiere Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
22/05	FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/05	Djoliba AC Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
09/05	Binga FC Mali Premiere Division	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
24/04	AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
15/04	USFAS Bamako Mali Premiere Division	1-2	1-2	8	4	L

Stade Malien

WWDWWDDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/06	FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division	2-0	2-0	2	6	W
09/06	Binga FC Mali Premiere Division	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
04/06	AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division	2-0	2-0	9	4	W
31/05	USFAS Bamako Mali Premiere Division	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
24/05	Mali Coura Mali Premiere Division	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
21/05	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	1-0	3-0	7	4	W
10/05	Onze Créateurs Mali Premiere Division	1-1	2-1	9	1	W
02/05	Derby Academie Mali Premiere Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/04	Afrique Football Elite Mali Premiere Division	1-0	1-0	11	4	W
16/04	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	1-0	1-0	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Bamako vs Stade Malien?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Bamako win (42%). Probabilities: Real Bamako 42%, draw 33%, Stade Malien 25%.

How many goals are expected in Real Bamako vs Stade Malien?

The model expects 1.82 goals (Real Bamako 1.07 · Stade Malien 0.75), with a 51% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Bamako vs Stade Malien?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.