Football · Mali Premiere Division · 02/11, 17:00

Prediction: FC Diarra vs Djoliba AC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2Total

FC Diarra0.72

Djoliba AC1.28

1X2

20% 31% 49%

FC Diarra Draw Djoliba AC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 61% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-1 16%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Diarra 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Djoliba AC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWWWLW

Head-to-head

FC Diarra 0–1–5 Djoliba AC (6 last)

Djoliba AC1-0FC Diarra
FC Diarra1-2Djoliba AC
FC Diarra0-2Djoliba AC
Djoliba AC0-0FC Diarra
Djoliba AC5-1FC Diarra
FC Diarra0-1Djoliba AC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Diarra 1503 · Djoliba AC 1573

	FC Diarra	Draw	Djoliba AC
Our model	20%	32%	49%
Market	21%	30%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Djoliba AC (rating 1503 vs 1573).
H2H favours Djoliba AC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Diarra	Djoliba AC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.6 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/33/44%	33/67/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.4	4.9 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.00

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.77

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
03:09 +7’	4.33	3.00	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Diarra 0–1–5 Djoliba AC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/10/26 Mali Super Cup	Djoliba AC	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Diarra
05/06/26 Mali Premiere Division	FC Diarra	1-2 HT 0-1	Djoliba AC
30/05/26 Mali Cup	FC Diarra	0-2 HT 0-2	Djoliba AC
22/02/26 Mali Premiere Division	Djoliba AC	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Diarra
03/06/25 Mali Premiere Division	Djoliba AC	5-1 HT 2-0	FC Diarra
09/02/25 Mali Premiere Division	FC Diarra	0-1 HT 0-1	Djoliba AC

Standings · Mali Premiere Division

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#	Team	P	D	Pts
1	AS Kayes	1	1	1
1	US Bougouba	1	1	1
3	Afrique Football Elite	0	0	0
3	AS Bakaridjan	0	0	0
3	AS Korofina	0	0	0
3	Real Bamako	0	0	0
3	Binga FC	0	0	0
3	Centre Sportif de Bamako	0	0	0
3	Derby Academie	0	0	0
3	Djoliba AC	0	0	0
3	FC Diarra	0	0	0
3	Onze Créateurs	0	0	0
3	Stade Malien	0	0	0
3	USFAS Bamako	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Diarra	Djoliba AC
US Bougouba	6-2 W	2-0 W
AS Korofina	0-0 D	3-1 W
Real Bamako	1-2 L	0-1 L
Binga FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
AS Bakaridjan	2-1 W	3-0 W
USFAS Bamako	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Djoliba AC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Diarra

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/06	Stade Malien Mali Premiere Division	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
09/06	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	2-2	6-2	5	0	W
05/06	Djoliba AC Mali Premiere Division	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
02/06	Afrique Football Elite Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
25/05	AS Korofina Mali Premiere Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/05	Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
10/05	Derby Academie Mali Premiere Division	0-4	1-4	–	–	L
03/05	Binga FC Mali Premiere Division	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
16/04	AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
04/04	USFAS Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-1	1-2	4	5	L

Djoliba AC

WWDDWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/06	AS Korofina Mali Premiere Division	3-1	3-1	2	3	W
09/06	Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
05/06	FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
02/06	Binga FC Mali Premiere Division	2-1	2-1	6	3	W
25/05	AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division	0-0	3-0	10	3	W
22/05	USFAS Bamako Mali Premiere Division	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
17/05	Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	8	0	D
13/05	Mali Coura Mali Premiere Division	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
02/05	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
15/04	Onze Créateurs Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-0	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Diarra vs Djoliba AC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Djoliba AC win (49%). Probabilities: FC Diarra 20%, draw 31%, Djoliba AC 49%.

How many goals are expected in FC Diarra vs Djoliba AC?

The model expects 2 goals (FC Diarra 0.72 · Djoliba AC 1.28), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Diarra vs Djoliba AC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.