Football · Mali Premiere Division · 02/11, 17:00

Prediction: AS Korofina vs Derby Academie

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.04Total

AS Korofina1.18

Derby Academie0.85

1X2

42% 32% 25%

AS Korofina Draw Derby Academie

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AS Korofina 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDWWLL

Derby Academie 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWDLWLDL

Head-to-head

AS Korofina 1–1–0 Derby Academie (2 last)

AS Korofina2-0Derby Academie
Derby Academie0-0AS Korofina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AS Korofina 1449 · Derby Academie 1496

	AS Korofina	Draw	Derby Academie
Our model	42%	33%	25%
Market	43%	32%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.04 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Derby Academie (rating 1449 vs 1496).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AS Korofina	Derby Academie
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.7	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/44/44%	29/43/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.4	2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X2.80

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.85

Under 1.751.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:51 +26’	2.10	2.80	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AS Korofina 1–1–0 Derby Academie

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/06/26 Mali Premiere Division	AS Korofina	2-0 HT 2-0	Derby Academie
26/01/26 Mali Premiere Division	Derby Academie	0-0 HT 0-0	AS Korofina

Standings · Mali Premiere Division

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#	Team	P	D	Pts
1	AS Kayes	1	1	1
1	US Bougouba	1	1	1
3	Afrique Football Elite	0	0	0
3	AS Bakaridjan	0	0	0
3	AS Korofina	0	0	0
3	Real Bamako	0	0	0
3	Binga FC	0	0	0
3	Centre Sportif de Bamako	0	0	0
3	Derby Academie	0	0	0
3	Djoliba AC	0	0	0
3	FC Diarra	0	0	0
3	Onze Créateurs	0	0	0
3	Stade Malien	0	0	0
3	USFAS Bamako	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AS Korofina	Derby Academie
Afrique Football Elite	3-5 L	1-2 L
Real Bamako	1-0 W	0-1 L
FC Diarra	0-0 D	4-1 W
Binga FC	0-2 L	0-0 D
Mali Coura	1-2 L	2-2 D
Stade Malien	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Derby Academie (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AS Korofina

LLLWLDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/06	Djoliba AC Mali Premiere Division	1-3	1-3	4	3	L
10/06	Afrique Football Elite Mali Premiere Division	1-3	3-5	0	0	L
04/06	Derby Academie Mali Premiere Division	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
31/05	Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
25/05	FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/05	Binga FC Mali Premiere Division	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
13/05	AS Bakaridjan Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
03/05	USFAS Bamako Mali Premiere Division	0-2	0-3	5	6	L
16/04	Mali Coura Mali Premiere Division	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
08/04	Stade Malien Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-2	5	6	L

Derby Academie

WDDWDLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/06	Afrique Football Elite Mali Premiere Division	1-0	1-2	3	0	L
10/06	Mali Coura Mali Premiere Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
04/06	AS Korofina Mali Premiere Division	0-2	0-2	7	5	L
31/05	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	0-1	2-1	9	5	W
25/05	Real Bamako Mali Premiere Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/05	Onze Créateurs Mali Premiere Division	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
10/05	FC Diarra Mali Premiere Division	4-0	4-1	–	–	W
02/05	Stade Malien Mali Premiere Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
15/04	Binga FC Mali Premiere Division	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
03/04	US Bougouba Mali Premiere Division	0-0	2-0	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AS Korofina vs Derby Academie?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AS Korofina win (42%). Probabilities: AS Korofina 42%, draw 32%, Derby Academie 25%.

How many goals are expected in AS Korofina vs Derby Academie?

The model expects 2.04 goals (AS Korofina 1.18 · Derby Academie 0.85), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AS Korofina vs Derby Academie?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.