Football · Israel Liga Alef South · 29/10, 19:00

Prediction: Tzeirey Tira vs Hapoel Marmorek

Team pages: Tzeirey Tira · Hapoel Marmorek

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Tzeirey Tira0.88

Hapoel Marmorek1.38

1X2

24% 28% 49%

Tzeirey Tira Draw Hapoel Marmorek

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tzeirey Tira 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLL

Hapoel Marmorek 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLDDWD

Head-to-head

Tzeirey Tira 0–3–1 Hapoel Marmorek (4 last)

Tzeirey Tira0-0Hapoel Marmorek
Tzeirey Tira0-0Hapoel Marmorek
Tzeirey Tira1-1Hapoel Marmorek
Hapoel Marmorek1-0Tzeirey Tira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tzeirey Tira 1390 · Hapoel Marmorek 1487

	Tzeirey Tira	Draw	Hapoel Marmorek
Our model	23%	30%	47%
Market	25%	26%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Marmorek (rating 1390 vs 1487).
Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tzeirey Tira	Hapoel Marmorek
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	2.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.3	5.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.50

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:59 +8’	3.60	3.50	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tzeirey Tira 0–3–1 Hapoel Marmorek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/01/26 Israel Liga Alef South	Tzeirey Tira	0-0	Hapoel Marmorek
09/01/26 Israel Liga Alef South	Tzeirey Tira	0-0 HT 0-0	Hapoel Marmorek
20/02/25 Israel Liga Alef South	Tzeirey Tira	1-1	Hapoel Marmorek
22/10/24 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Marmorek	1-0 HT 1-0	Tzeirey Tira

Standings · Israel Liga Alef South · Liga Alef 26/27, South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shimshon Tel Aviv	8	6	1	1	17	6	19
2	Sport Club Dimona	7	6	0	1	14	8	18
3	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	8	5	1	2	14	6	16
4	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi	8	4	3	1	15	7	15
5	Hapoel Hadera	8	4	3	1	10	4	15
6	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon	8	4	3	1	7	5	15
7	Hapoel Herzliya	8	3	4	1	9	9	13
8	Maccabi Ironi Sderot	8	3	2	3	14	10	11
9	Hapoel Azor	7	3	2	2	10	8	11
10	Ironi Beit Shemesh	8	3	2	3	16	17	11
11	MS Jerusalem	8	3	2	3	11	14	11
12	Maccabi Yavne	8	2	4	2	11	7	10
13	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	8	2	4	2	11	9	10
14	Hapoel Marmorek	8	2	3	3	10	9	9
15	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	8	1	3	4	8	15	6
16	Kfar Saba 1928	8	1	1	6	8	14	4
17	Tzeirey Tira	8	0	0	8	2	17	0
18	AS Nordia Jerusalem	8	0	0	8	3	25	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tzeirey Tira	Hapoel Marmorek
Hapoel Holon Yaniv	0-3 L	0-1 L
Hapoel Hadera	0-1 L	1-0 W
Hapoel Herzliya	0-1 L	1-1 D
AS Nordia Jerusalem	5-2 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Marmorek (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tzeirey Tira

WLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Hapoel Holon Yaniv Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-3	8	8	L
19/10	Hapoel Hadera Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
09/10	Ironi Beit Shemesh Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-3	2	5	L
30/09	MS Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	0-2	7	8	L
23/09	Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-1	0	7	L
17/09	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
09/09	Hapoel Azor Israel Liga Alef South	0-2	0-2	4	7	L
03/09	Maccabi Ironi Sderot Israel Liga Alef South	1-3	1-4	1	6	L
19/02	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
13/02	AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	3-1	5-2	6	7	W

Hapoel Marmorek

DDWLLLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
19/10	AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	4-1	7	4	W
08/10	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
01/10	Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South	1-2	2-2	3	5	D
23/09	Shimshon Tel Aviv Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-2	10	8	L
18/09	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
09/09	Hapoel Holon Yaniv Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	0-1	10	6	L
04/09	Hapoel Hadera Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-0	0	9	W
27/02	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-1	1	7	D
20/02	Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-1	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tzeirey Tira vs Hapoel Marmorek?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hapoel Marmorek win (49%). Probabilities: Tzeirey Tira 24%, draw 28%, Hapoel Marmorek 49%.

How many goals are expected in Tzeirey Tira vs Hapoel Marmorek?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Tzeirey Tira 0.88 · Hapoel Marmorek 1.38), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tzeirey Tira vs Hapoel Marmorek?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.