Football · Uganda Premier League · 03/11, 14:00
Prediction: NEC FC Bugolobi vs UPDF FC
Team pages: NEC FC Bugolobi · UPDF FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.08Total
NEC FC Bugolobi1.64
UPDF FC0.44
1X2
NEC FC Bugolobi
Draw
UPDF FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 56%
Most likely score
1-0 20%
Recent form · 10 last
NEC FC Bugolobi
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
UPDF FC
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
NEC FC Bugolobi
3–3–0
UPDF FC
(6 last)
- NEC FC Bugolobi1-0UPDF FC
- UPDF FC0-2NEC FC Bugolobi
- UPDF FC0-0NEC FC Bugolobi
- UPDF FC0-0NEC FC Bugolobi
- NEC FC Bugolobi1-0UPDF FC
- UPDF FC2-2NEC FC Bugolobi
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · NEC FC Bugolobi 1582 · UPDF FC 1439
| NEC FC Bugolobi | Draw | UPDF FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 25% | 9% |
| Market | 69% | 20% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NEC FC Bugolobi (rating 1582 vs 1439).
- H2H favours NEC FC Bugolobi: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| NEC FC Bugolobi | UPDF FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.4 | 1.4 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · NEC FC Bugolobi 3–3–0 UPDF FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/26 Uganda Premier League | NEC FC Bugolobi | 1-0 HT 0-0 | UPDF FC |
| 26/02/26 Uganda Cup | UPDF FC | 0-2 HT 0-2 | NEC FC Bugolobi |
| 16/12/25 Uganda Premier League | UPDF FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | NEC FC Bugolobi |
| 04/04/25 Uganda Premier League | UPDF FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | NEC FC Bugolobi |
| 24/09/24 Uganda Premier League | NEC FC Bugolobi | 1-0 HT 0-0 | UPDF FC |
| 13/02/24 Uganda Premier League | UPDF FC | 2-2 HT 1-0 | NEC FC Bugolobi |
Standings · Uganda Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Villa | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 21 |
| 2 | BUL FC | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 20 |
| 3 | NEC FC Bugolobi | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 20 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | KCCA | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 16 |
| 6 | Uganda Police FC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 14 |
| 7 | Blacks Power | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 13 |
| 8 | Vipers SC | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Maroons | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 11 |
| 10 | Kitara FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | URA | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 10 |
| 12 | UPDF FC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| 13 | Lugazi FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 8 |
| 14 | Express FC | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 15 | Mbarara City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 4 |
| 17 | Kataka FC | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 3 |
| 18 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | NEC FC Bugolobi | UPDF FC |
|---|---|---|
| BUL FC | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Express FC | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| URA | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| FC Calvary | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
NEC FC Bugolobi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Blacks Power Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/10 | Ntugasaze FC Uganda Premier League |
2-1 | 5-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 21/10 | BUL FC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 14/10 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 08/10 | Express FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 15/09 | URA Uganda Premier League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 11/09 | Mbarara City Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 01/09 | Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | KCCA Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | FC Calvary Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
UPDF FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Kitara FC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 27/10 | URA Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 18/10 | BUL FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 15/10 | Express FC Uganda Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 17/09 | Maroons Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 10/09 | Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 01/09 | Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Kataka FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | SC Villa Uganda Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 19/05 | FC Calvary Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in NEC FC Bugolobi vs UPDF FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a NEC FC Bugolobi win (68%). Probabilities: NEC FC Bugolobi 68%, draw 22%, UPDF FC 10%.
How many goals are expected in NEC FC Bugolobi vs UPDF FC?
The model expects 2.08 goals (NEC FC Bugolobi 1.64 · UPDF FC 0.44), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in NEC FC Bugolobi vs UPDF FC?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.