Football · Uganda Premier League · 03/11, 14:00

Prediction: Uganda Police FC vs Kitara FC

Team pages: Uganda Police FC · Kitara FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Uganda Police FC1.17

Kitara FC1.19

1X2

34% 31% 35%

Uganda Police FC Draw Kitara FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Uganda Police FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDWLLDWW

Kitara FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLLDDDDWWW

Head-to-head

Uganda Police FC 2–1–3 Kitara FC (6 last)

Uganda Police FC1-0Kitara FC
Kitara FC4-0Uganda Police FC
Kitara FC2-2Uganda Police FC
Uganda Police FC1-2Kitara FC
Uganda Police FC0-1Kitara FC
Kitara FC0-1Uganda Police FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Uganda Police FC 1481 · Kitara FC 1521

	Uganda Police FC	Draw	Kitara FC
Our model	34%	31%	35%
Market	34%	31%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kitara FC (rating 1481 vs 1521).
H2H favours Kitara FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Uganda Police FC	Kitara FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	1.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.63

X2.90

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +6’	2.63	2.90	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Uganda Police FC 2–1–3 Kitara FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/08/26 Uganda Super 8	Uganda Police FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Kitara FC
02/08/26 Uganda Super 8	Kitara FC	4-0 HT 2-0	Uganda Police FC
23/05/26 Uganda Premier League	Kitara FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Uganda Police FC
27/11/25 Uganda Premier League	Uganda Police FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Kitara FC
27/03/25 Uganda Premier League	Uganda Police FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Kitara FC
03/10/24 Uganda Premier League	Kitara FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Uganda Police FC

Standings · Uganda Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SC Villa	9	6	3	0	18	4	21
2	BUL FC	8	6	2	0	16	5	20
3	NEC FC Bugolobi	9	6	2	1	18	5	20
4	Entebbe UPPC	9	4	4	1	8	3	16
5	KCCA	8	5	1	2	9	6	16
6	Uganda Police FC	9	4	2	3	9	12	14
7	Blacks Power	9	4	1	4	9	12	13
8	Vipers SC	8	3	2	3	13	4	11
9	Maroons	8	3	2	3	13	8	11
10	Kitara FC	5	3	2	0	6	3	11
11	URA	8	3	1	4	7	10	10
12	UPDF FC	8	2	2	4	4	7	8
13	Lugazi FC	9	2	2	5	6	13	8
14	Express FC	9	1	5	3	7	9	8
15	Mbarara City	8	2	2	4	4	8	8
16	Ntugasaze FC	8	1	1	6	5	19	4
17	Kataka FC	9	0	3	6	7	21	3
18	Kigezi Homeboyz FC	7	0	1	6	2	12	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Uganda Police FC	Kitara FC
Kataka FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Kigezi Homeboyz FC	3-1 W	1-0 W
SC Villa	1-6 L	1-1 D
UPDF FC	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Kitara FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Uganda Police FC

DWLDWLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Kataka FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-1	8	6	W
27/10	Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League	1-1	3-1	7	4	W
23/10	Vipers SC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
14/10	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	0-3	1-6	7	2	L
09/10	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
16/09	Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
10/09	UPDF FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
02/09	Blacks Power Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
29/08	Mbarara City Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
23/05	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	4	D

Kitara FC

WLLDDDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	UPDF FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
10/10	Kataka FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
07/10	Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
17/09	Express FC Uganda Premier League	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
29/08	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
23/05	Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
19/05	BUL FC Uganda Premier League	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
12/05	Express FC Uganda Premier League	1-3	2-3	5	4	L
09/05	NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
30/04	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	2-0	2-0	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Uganda Police FC vs Kitara FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kitara FC win (35%). Probabilities: Uganda Police FC 34%, draw 31%, Kitara FC 35%.

How many goals are expected in Uganda Police FC vs Kitara FC?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Uganda Police FC 1.17 · Kitara FC 1.19), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Uganda Police FC vs Kitara FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.