Football · Uganda Premier League · 04/11, 14:00
Prediction: KCCA vs Maroons
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.08Total
KCCA1.5
Maroons0.59
1X2
KCCA
Draw
Maroons
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 65%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0 18%
Recent form · 10 last
KCCA
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Maroons
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
KCCA
2–3–1
Maroons
(6 last)
- KCCA3-0Maroons
- Maroons0-0KCCA
- KCCA0-2Maroons
- Maroons0-0KCCA
- KCCA5-0Maroons
- KCCA0-0Maroons
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · KCCA 1562 · Maroons 1508
| KCCA | Draw | Maroons | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 28% | 13% |
| Market | 60% | 25% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KCCA (rating 1562 vs 1508).
- H2H favours KCCA: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| KCCA | Maroons | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.7 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.4 | 1.3 / 2.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 2.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · KCCA 2–3–1 Maroons
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/26 Uganda Premier League | KCCA | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Maroons |
| 21/01/26 Uganda Premier League | Maroons | 0-0 HT 0-0 | KCCA |
| 14/09/25 Uganda Super 8 | KCCA | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Maroons |
| 02/03/25 Uganda Premier League | Maroons | 0-0 HT 0-0 | KCCA |
| 31/10/24 Uganda Premier League | KCCA | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Maroons |
| 11/08/24 Uganda Super 8 | KCCA | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Maroons |
Standings · Uganda Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Villa | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 21 |
| 2 | BUL FC | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 20 |
| 3 | NEC FC Bugolobi | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 20 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | KCCA | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 16 |
| 6 | Uganda Police FC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 14 |
| 7 | Blacks Power | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 13 |
| 8 | Vipers SC | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Maroons | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 11 |
| 10 | Kitara FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | URA | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 10 |
| 12 | UPDF FC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| 13 | Lugazi FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 8 |
| 14 | Express FC | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 15 | Mbarara City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 4 |
| 17 | Kataka FC | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 3 |
| 18 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | KCCA | Maroons |
|---|---|---|
| Lugazi FC | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Ntugasaze FC | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| URA | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Kataka FC | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Maroons (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
KCCA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Mbarara City Uganda Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/10 | Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 13/10 | Ntugasaze FC Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/10 | URA Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 16/09 | Kataka FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 08/09 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 03/09 | Express FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Mbarara City Uganda Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 19/05 | URA Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
Maroons
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 20/10 | Kataka FC Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Vipers SC Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 07/10 | Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 17/09 | UPDF FC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 08/09 | Blacks Power Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 02/09 | Ntugasaze FC Uganda Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | URA Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 19/05 | Vipers SC Uganda Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in KCCA vs Maroons?
According to our model, the most likely result is a KCCA win (59%). Probabilities: KCCA 59%, draw 26%, Maroons 14%.
How many goals are expected in KCCA vs Maroons?
The model expects 2.08 goals (KCCA 1.5 · Maroons 0.59), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in KCCA vs Maroons?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.