Football · Uganda Premier League · 03/11, 14:00

Prediction: BUL FC vs SC Villa

Team pages: BUL FC · SC Villa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

BUL FC1.09

SC Villa1.09

1X2

34% 31% 34%

BUL FC Draw SC Villa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

BUL FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DLWWWWDWWD

SC Villa 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDWWDW

Head-to-head

BUL FC 2–3–1 SC Villa (6 last)

SC Villa0-0BUL FC
SC Villa2-2BUL FC
BUL FC2-1SC Villa
BUL FC1-1SC Villa
BUL FC1-0SC Villa
SC Villa2-1BUL FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BUL FC 1579 · SC Villa 1567

	BUL FC	Draw	SC Villa
Our model	34%	32%	34%
Market	34%	31%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours BUL FC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BUL FC	SC Villa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	2 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1.2 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.3	2.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X2.88

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +2’	2.60	2.88	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · BUL FC 2–3–1 SC Villa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Uganda Premier League	SC Villa	0-0 HT 0-0	BUL FC
25/02/26 Uganda Cup	SC Villa	2-2 HT 1-1	BUL FC
23/01/26 Uganda Premier League	BUL FC	2-1 HT 1-0	SC Villa
14/09/25 Uganda Super 8	BUL FC	1-1	SC Villa
04/04/25 Uganda Premier League	BUL FC	1-0 HT 1-0	SC Villa
26/09/24 Uganda Premier League	SC Villa	2-1 HT 1-0	BUL FC

Standings · Uganda Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SC Villa	9	6	3	0	18	4	21
2	BUL FC	8	6	2	0	16	5	20
3	NEC FC Bugolobi	9	6	2	1	18	5	20
4	Entebbe UPPC	9	4	4	1	8	3	16
5	KCCA	8	5	1	2	9	6	16
6	Uganda Police FC	9	4	2	3	9	12	14
7	Blacks Power	9	4	1	4	9	12	13
8	Vipers SC	8	3	2	3	13	4	11
9	Maroons	8	3	2	3	13	8	11
10	Kitara FC	5	3	2	0	6	3	11
11	URA	8	3	1	4	7	10	10
12	UPDF FC	8	2	2	4	4	7	8
13	Lugazi FC	9	2	2	5	6	13	8
14	Express FC	9	1	5	3	7	9	8
15	Mbarara City	8	2	2	4	4	8	8
16	Ntugasaze FC	8	1	1	6	5	19	4
17	Kataka FC	9	0	3	6	7	21	3
18	Kigezi Homeboyz FC	7	0	1	6	2	12	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BUL FC	SC Villa
UPDF FC	2-0 W	2-1 W
Lugazi FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Blacks Power	2-1 W	0-0 D
Kataka FC	4-1 W	1-1 D
Express FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Kitara FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: BUL FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BUL FC

DLWWWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
21/10	NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-1	8	3	W
18/10	UPDF FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
13/10	Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
15/09	Blacks Power Uganda Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
08/09	Ntugasaze FC Uganda Premier League	2-1	4-1	7	2	W
03/09	Kataka FC Uganda Premier League	2-1	4-1	3	4	W
30/08	Express FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
23/05	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
19/05	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	1-1	1-1	3	6	D

SC Villa

WDWWWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
27/10	Blacks Power Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
22/10	Mbarara City Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
14/10	Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League	3-0	6-1	4	2	W
07/10	Kataka FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/09	Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
09/09	Express FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
04/09	URA Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
29/08	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
23/05	UPDF FC Uganda Premier League	2-0	2-1	6	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BUL FC vs SC Villa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a BUL FC win (34%). Probabilities: BUL FC 34%, draw 31%, SC Villa 34%.

How many goals are expected in BUL FC vs SC Villa?

The model expects 2.19 goals (BUL FC 1.09 · SC Villa 1.09), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in BUL FC vs SC Villa?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.