Football · South Korea K League 1 · 01/11, 06:00
Prediction: Ulsan HD vs Gangwon FC
Team pages: Ulsan HD · Gangwon FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
Ulsan HD1.47
Gangwon FC1.12
1X2
Ulsan HD
Draw
Gangwon FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Ulsan HD
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Gangwon FC
2-7-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ulsan HD
1–2–3
Gangwon FC
(6 last)
- Ulsan HD2-3Gangwon FC
- Gangwon FC2-0Ulsan HD
- Ulsan HD3-1Gangwon FC
- Gangwon FC2-2Ulsan HD
- Gangwon FC1-1Ulsan HD
- Ulsan HD1-2Gangwon FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ulsan HD 1487 · Gangwon FC 1505
| Ulsan HD | Draw | Gangwon FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Gangwon FC: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ulsan HD | Gangwon FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.2 | 2.3 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ulsan HD 1–2–3 Gangwon FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/26 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Gangwon FC |
| 17/05/26 South Korea K League 1 | Gangwon FC | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Ulsan HD |
| 28/02/26 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Gangwon FC |
| 27/07/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gangwon FC | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Ulsan HD |
| 17/05/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gangwon FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Ulsan HD |
| 19/04/25 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Gangwon FC |
Standings · South Korea K League 1 · K-League 1 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 33 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 61 | 29 | 67 |
| 2 | Ulsan HD | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 52 | 47 | 51 |
| 3 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 53 | 41 | 49 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 43 | 33 | 48 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 33 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 40 | 30 | 48 |
| 6 | Incheon Utd | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 35 | 46 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ulsan HD | Gangwon FC |
|---|---|---|
| Pohang Steelers | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Bucheon | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Gwangju FC | 3-4 L | 2-2 D |
| FC Anyang | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Incheon Utd | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| FC Seoul | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Jeju SK | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Jeonbuk Motors | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 6 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ulsan HD
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 17/10 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 11/10 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
2-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 19/09 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 08/09 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Jeju SK South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/08 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
Gangwon FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/10 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 09/10 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 27/09 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | Jeju SK South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 09/09 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 30/08 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 26/08 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 12 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ulsan HD vs Gangwon FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ulsan HD win (44%). Probabilities: Ulsan HD 44%, draw 28%, Gangwon FC 28%.
How many goals are expected in Ulsan HD vs Gangwon FC?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Ulsan HD 1.47 · Gangwon FC 1.12), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ulsan HD vs Gangwon FC?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.