Football · South Korea K League 1 · 08/11, 06:00
Prediction: Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Incheon Utd
Team pages: Daejeon Hana Citizen · Incheon Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.5Total
Daejeon Hana Citizen1.5
Incheon Utd1.01
1X2
Daejeon Hana Citizen
Draw
Incheon Utd
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Daejeon Hana Citizen
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Incheon Utd
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Daejeon Hana Citizen
3–2–1
Incheon Utd
(6 last)
- Incheon Utd1-1Daejeon Hana Citizen
- Daejeon Hana Citizen0-0Incheon Utd
- Incheon Utd1-3Daejeon Hana Citizen
- Incheon Utd1-2Daejeon Hana Citizen
- Daejeon Hana Citizen2-1Incheon Utd
- Daejeon Hana Citizen0-1Incheon Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daejeon Hana Citizen 1560 · Incheon Utd 1519
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | Draw | Incheon Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 28% | 24% |
| Market | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daejeon Hana Citizen (rating 1560 vs 1519).
- H2H favours Daejeon Hana Citizen: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | Incheon Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/80/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.9 | 1.4 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 2.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daejeon Hana Citizen 3–2–1 Incheon Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/26 South Korea K League 1 | Incheon Utd | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Daejeon Hana Citizen |
| 05/05/26 South Korea K League 1 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Incheon Utd |
| 18/03/26 South Korea K League 1 | Incheon Utd | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Daejeon Hana Citizen |
| 10/11/24 South Korea K League 1 | Incheon Utd | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Daejeon Hana Citizen |
| 17/08/24 South Korea K League 1 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Incheon Utd |
| 18/05/24 South Korea K League 1 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Incheon Utd |
Standings · South Korea K League 1 · K-League 1 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 61 | 30 | 67 |
| 2 | Ulsan HD | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 54 | 48 | 54 |
| 3 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 53 | 41 | 50 |
| 4 | Incheon Utd | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 44 | 35 | 49 |
| 5 | Jeonbuk Motors | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 43 | 33 | 49 |
| 6 | Gangwon FC | 34 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 41 | 32 | 48 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Daejeon Hana Citizen | Incheon Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Jeonbuk Motors | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Pohang Steelers | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| Bucheon | 5-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Jeju SK | 1-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Ulsan HD | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daejeon Hana Citizen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 24/10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/10 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 3-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 09/10 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 20/09 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 09/09 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Jeju SK South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/08 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
Incheon Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 24/10 | Jeju SK South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 18/10 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 09/10 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 27/09 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 08/09 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Incheon Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Daejeon Hana Citizen win (48%). Probabilities: Daejeon Hana Citizen 48%, draw 28%, Incheon Utd 25%.
How many goals are expected in Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Incheon Utd?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Daejeon Hana Citizen 1.5 · Incheon Utd 1.01), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Incheon Utd?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.