Football · South Korea K League 1 · 08/11, 06:00

Prediction: FC Seoul vs Ulsan HD

Team pages: FC Seoul · Ulsan HD

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

FC Seoul1.88

Ulsan HD1.37

1X2

48% 26% 26%

FC Seoul Draw Ulsan HD

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Seoul 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWDDL

Ulsan HD 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLLWDW

Head-to-head

FC Seoul 3–1–2 Ulsan HD (6 last)

Ulsan HD1-0FC Seoul
FC Seoul1-3Ulsan HD
Ulsan HD1-4FC Seoul
FC Seoul3-2Ulsan HD
FC Seoul1-0Ulsan HD
Ulsan HD0-0FC Seoul

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Seoul 1521 · Ulsan HD 1512

	FC Seoul	Draw	Ulsan HD
Our model	48%	24%	27%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Seoul: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Seoul	Ulsan HD
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.95
X	3.80 → 3.30▼	Pinn 4.04 ★
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
08:07 +4’	1.91	3.80	3.50
19:57 +6’	1.91	3.30▼	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +14’	1.93	4.11	3.45
09:04 +5’	1.94▲	4.06▼	3.46▲
00:12 +3’	1.95▲	4.04▼	3.46
18:17 +8’	1.95	4.04	3.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Seoul 3–1–2 Ulsan HD

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/09/26 South Korea K League 1	Ulsan HD	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Seoul
26/07/26 South Korea K League 1	FC Seoul	1-3 HT 0-2	Ulsan HD
15/04/26 South Korea K League 1	Ulsan HD	1-4 HT 0-3	FC Seoul
24/08/25 South Korea K League 1	FC Seoul	3-2 HT 3-1	Ulsan HD
20/07/25 South Korea K League 1	FC Seoul	1-0 HT 1-0	Ulsan HD
05/04/25 South Korea K League 1	Ulsan HD	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Seoul

Standings · South Korea K League 1 · K-League 1 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Seoul	34	20	7	7	61	30	67
2	Ulsan HD	34	16	6	12	54	48	54
3	Daejeon Hana Citizen	34	13	11	10	53	41	50
4	Incheon Utd	34	13	10	11	44	35	49
5	Jeonbuk Motors	34	12	13	9	43	33	49
6	Gangwon FC	34	11	15	8	41	32	48

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Seoul	Ulsan HD
Incheon Utd	0-1 L	2-1 W
Gangwon FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Gimcheon Sangmu FC	2-2 D	3-1 W
Jeju SK	2-1 W	0-0 D
Pohang Steelers	1-2 L	2-2 D
Gwangju FC	5-2 W	3-4 L
Bucheon	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ulsan HD (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Seoul

WWWLWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
24/10	Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
18/10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
10/10	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	0-0	2-1	1	3	W
20/09	Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
12/09	Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1	1-1	2-1	5	1	W
08/09	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
05/09	Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
30/08	Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1	3-1	5-2	6	3	W
25/08	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-0	9	6	W

Ulsan HD

LWDWWLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1	0-1	2-1	0	1	W
24/10	Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1	0-2	2-2	11	2	D
17/10	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	0-1	2-1	8	6	W
11/10	Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1	2-2	3-4	1	1	L
19/09	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	0-1	1-2	8	6	L
12/09	Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1	0-0	2-1	6	0	W
08/09	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
05/09	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
29/08	Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
26/08	Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Seoul vs Ulsan HD?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Seoul win (48%). Probabilities: FC Seoul 48%, draw 26%, Ulsan HD 26%.

How many goals are expected in FC Seoul vs Ulsan HD?

The model expects 3.25 goals (FC Seoul 1.88 · Ulsan HD 1.37), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Ulsan HD?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.