Football · South Korea K League 1 · 01/11, 08:30
Prediction: FC Seoul vs Incheon Utd
Team pages: FC Seoul · Incheon Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.65Total
FC Seoul1.69
Incheon Utd0.95
1X2
FC Seoul
Draw
Incheon Utd
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Seoul
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Incheon Utd
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Seoul
5–1–0
Incheon Utd
(6 last)
- FC Seoul1-0Incheon Utd
- FC Seoul1-0Incheon Utd
- Incheon Utd1-2FC Seoul
- Incheon Utd0-1FC Seoul
- Incheon Utd1-2FC Seoul
- FC Seoul0-0Incheon Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Seoul 1564 · Incheon Utd 1506
| FC Seoul | Draw | Incheon Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Seoul (rating 1564 vs 1506).
- H2H favours FC Seoul: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Seoul | Incheon Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1 | 1.3 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 20/80/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.8 | 1.5 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Seoul 5–1–0 Incheon Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/26 South Korea K League 1 | FC Seoul | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Incheon Utd |
| 05/07/26 South Korea K League 1 | FC Seoul | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Incheon Utd |
| 28/02/26 South Korea K League 1 | Incheon Utd | 1-2 HT 0-0 | FC Seoul |
| 27/07/24 South Korea K League 1 | Incheon Utd | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FC Seoul |
| 11/05/24 South Korea K League 1 | Incheon Utd | 1-2 HT 1-0 | FC Seoul |
| 10/03/24 South Korea K League 1 | FC Seoul | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Incheon Utd |
Standings · South Korea K League 1 · K-League 1 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 33 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 61 | 29 | 67 |
| 2 | Ulsan HD | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 52 | 47 | 51 |
| 3 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 53 | 41 | 49 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 43 | 33 | 48 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 33 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 40 | 30 | 48 |
| 6 | Incheon Utd | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 35 | 46 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Seoul | Incheon Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Gangwon FC | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Jeju SK | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Pohang Steelers | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Jeonbuk Motors | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Ulsan HD | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Bucheon | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| FC Anyang | 7-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Seoul
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Jeju SK South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 08/09 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
3-1 | 5-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/08 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
5-0 | 7-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Incheon Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Jeju SK South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 18/10 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 09/10 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 27/09 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 08/09 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 26/08 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Seoul vs Incheon Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Seoul win (54%). Probabilities: FC Seoul 54%, draw 26%, Incheon Utd 20%.
How many goals are expected in FC Seoul vs Incheon Utd?
The model expects 2.65 goals (FC Seoul 1.69 · Incheon Utd 0.95), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Incheon Utd?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.