Football · South Korea K League 1 · 31/10, 08:30

Prediction: Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Team pages: Gwangju FC · Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Gwangju FC1.22

Gimcheon Sangmu FC1.55

1X2

29% 27% 44%

Gwangju FC Draw Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gwangju FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDLDDWLW

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDDDWLDL

Head-to-head

Gwangju FC 1–5–0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC (6 last)

Gimcheon Sangmu FC2-2Gwangju FC
Gwangju FC1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC1-1Gwangju FC
Gwangju FC1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gwangju FC1-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC0-0Gwangju FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gwangju FC 1482 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1469

	Gwangju FC	Draw	Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Our model	29%	27%	44%
Market	29%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gwangju FC	Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.2	3.4 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.50

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.15
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.55
2	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.22 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:31 +38’	3.10	3.50	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:05 +10’	3.35	3.52	2.09
13:58 +14’	3.38▲	3.56▲	2.11▲
07:06 +4’	3.32▼	3.57▲	2.13▲
16:53 +8’	3.15▼	3.55▼	2.22▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gwangju FC 1–5–0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 South Korea K League 1	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Gwangju FC
22/07/26 South Korea K League 1	Gwangju FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Gimcheon Sangmu FC
17/03/26 South Korea K League 1	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Gwangju FC
22/07/25 South Korea K League 1	Gwangju FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Gimcheon Sangmu FC
05/05/25 South Korea K League 1	Gwangju FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Gimcheon Sangmu FC
16/03/25 South Korea K League 1	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Gwangju FC

Standings · South Korea K League 1 · K-League 1 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Jeju SK	33	12	10	11	39	37	46
2	FC Anyang	33	10	13	10	40	48	43
3	Pohang Steelers	33	11	9	13	30	39	42
4	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	33	5	19	9	33	41	34
5	Bucheon	33	7	11	15	32	47	32
6	Gwangju FC	33	3	12	18	30	69	21

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gwangju FC	Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Bucheon	3-0 W	2-0 W
Daejeon Hana Citizen	2-3 L	1-2 L
Ulsan HD	4-3 W	1-3 L
Jeonbuk Motors	2-2 D	0-0 D
FC Anyang	1-1 D	0-1 L
Jeju SK	0-1 L	0-0 D
FC Seoul	2-5 L	2-2 D
Gangwon FC	2-2 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	1 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Gwangju FC (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gwangju FC

LDLDLDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	1-0	3-0	0	3	W
18/10	Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1	2-0	2-3	3	3	L
11/10	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	2-2	4-3	2	1	W
20/09	Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1	1-1	2-2	1	2	D
13/09	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
09/09	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
06/09	Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1	0-1	2-2	1	1	D
30/08	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	1-3	2-5	4	3	L
26/08	Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1	2-0	2-2	3	3	D
23/08	Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-1	2	3	L

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

DDLDDDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
18/10	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
10/10	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
19/09	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
13/09	Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1	2-0	2-2	5	4	D
09/09	Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
06/09	Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1	1-0	2-2	4	1	D
29/08	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	1-1	1-3	12	3	L
25/08	Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	12	3	D
22/08	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gimcheon Sangmu FC win (44%). Probabilities: Gwangju FC 29%, draw 27%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%.

How many goals are expected in Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Gwangju FC 1.22 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.55), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.