Football · Panama Liga Prom · 26/10, 22:00
Prediction: Alianza FC Reserves vs Chorrillo
Team pages: Alianza FC Reserves · Chorrillo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.29Total
Alianza FC Reserves0.9
Chorrillo1.38
1X2
Alianza FC Reserves
Draw
Chorrillo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Alianza FC Reserves
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Chorrillo
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alianza FC Reserves
1–4–1
Chorrillo
(6 last)
- Chorrillo0-0Alianza FC Reserves
- Chorrillo0-2Alianza FC Reserves
- Alianza FC Reserves0-0Chorrillo
- Chorrillo4-0Alianza FC Reserves
- Alianza FC Reserves2-2Chorrillo
- Alianza FC Reserves2-2Chorrillo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alianza FC Reserves 1478 · Chorrillo 1555
| Alianza FC Reserves | Draw | Chorrillo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 30% | 47% |
| Market | 26% | 25% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chorrillo (rating 1478 vs 1555).
- Cards-heavy: 12.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alianza FC Reserves | Chorrillo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.4 | 1.9 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/44/33% | 22/56/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.3 | 1.3 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.4 | 6.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC Reserves 1–4–1 Chorrillo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 Panama Liga Prom | Chorrillo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Alianza FC Reserves |
| 30/04/26 Panama Liga Prom | Chorrillo | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Alianza FC Reserves |
| 16/01/26 Panama Liga Prom | Alianza FC Reserves | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Chorrillo |
| 03/10/25 Panama Liga Prom | Chorrillo | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Alianza FC Reserves |
| 18/07/25 Panama Liga Prom | Alianza FC Reserves | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Chorrillo |
| 26/04/25 Panama Liga Prom | Alianza FC Reserves | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Chorrillo |
Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, East-South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chorrillo | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 10 | 27 |
| 2 | Tauro FC Reserves | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Plaza Amador Reserves | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 23 |
| 4 | Potros Del Este | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 15 |
| 5 | Alianza FC Reserves | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 22 | 12 |
| 6 | San Martin FC | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 | 33 | 7 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alianza FC Reserves | Chorrillo |
|---|---|---|
| Plaza Amador Reserves | 1-4 L | 3-0 W |
| San Martin FC | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| UMECIT Reserves | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| Champions FC Academy | 1-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Academia Costa Del Este | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Sporting San Miguelito Reserves | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| CD Arabe Unido Reserves | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Panama City FC | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Tauro FC Reserves | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Potros Del Este | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 5 L | 7 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Chorrillo (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alianza FC Reserves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 16/10 | San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 02/10 | UMECIT Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 25/09 | Champions FC Academy Panama Liga Prom |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 18/09 | Academia Costa Del Este Panama Liga Prom |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 11/09 | Sporting San Miguelito Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 29/08 | Panama City FC Panama Liga Prom |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 23/08 | Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 15/08 | Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
Chorrillo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 08/10 | Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 03/10 | Panama City FC Panama Liga Prom |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 26/09 | UMECIT Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/09 | Champions FC Academy Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 11/09 | Academia Costa Del Este Panama Liga Prom |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 10 | W |
| 05/09 | Sporting San Miguelito Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 27/08 | CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 20/08 | Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 12/08 | Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alianza FC Reserves vs Chorrillo?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Chorrillo win (48%). Probabilities: Alianza FC Reserves 25%, draw 27%, Chorrillo 48%.
How many goals are expected in Alianza FC Reserves vs Chorrillo?
The model expects 2.29 goals (Alianza FC Reserves 0.9 · Chorrillo 1.38), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Alianza FC Reserves vs Chorrillo?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.