Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 24/10, 22:00

Prediction: Excursionistas vs Sportivo Italiano

Team pages: Excursionistas · Sportivo Italiano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Excursionistas1.92

Sportivo Italiano0.48

1X2

72% 21% 8%

Excursionistas Draw Sportivo Italiano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Excursionistas 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWLWD

Sportivo Italiano 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWLDWWWD

Head-to-head

Excursionistas 3–2–1 Sportivo Italiano (6 last)

Sportivo Italiano0-1Excursionistas
Sportivo Italiano2-1Excursionistas
Excursionistas2-0Sportivo Italiano
Excursionistas1-1Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano0-3Excursionistas
Excursionistas1-1Sportivo Italiano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Excursionistas 1572 · Sportivo Italiano 1521

	Excursionistas	Draw	Sportivo Italiano
Our model	71%	21%	8%
Market	72%	20%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excursionistas (rating 1572 vs 1521).
H2H favours Excursionistas: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Excursionistas	Sportivo Italiano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.2	1.7 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.25

X4.50

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:03 +8’	1.25	4.50	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Excursionistas 3–2–1 Sportivo Italiano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	0-1 HT 0-0	Excursionistas
02/08/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	2-1 HT 2-0	Excursionistas
16/03/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	2-0 HT 1-0	Sportivo Italiano
11/07/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Excursionistas	1-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Italiano
20/02/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Sportivo Italiano	0-3 HT 0-1	Excursionistas
05/07/23 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Excursionistas	1-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Italiano

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	40	23	9	8	64	31	78
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	40	20	13	7	53	26	73
3	Sportivo Italiano	40	19	12	9	47	29	69
4	Talleres Remedios	40	19	11	10	42	26	68
5	Atletico Camioneros	40	18	13	9	47	32	67
6	Villa Dalmine	40	17	14	9	39	27	65
7	Deportivo Armenio	40	17	11	12	42	38	62
8	Real Pilar	40	17	11	12	42	39	62
9	Club Comunicaciones	40	14	15	11	39	34	57
10	Deportivo Laferrere	40	14	13	13	49	52	55
11	San Martin De Burzaco	40	12	15	13	41	45	51
12	Villa San Carlos	40	12	14	14	40	43	50
13	Deportivo Merlo	40	11	15	14	39	53	48
14	CS Dock Sud	40	11	14	15	41	45	47
15	Deportivo Liniers	40	10	15	15	33	41	45
16	CSD Flandria	40	12	9	19	36	48	45
17	Argentino Merlo	40	11	11	18	36	44	44
18	Argentino Quilmes	40	9	17	14	32	40	44
19	CA Brown de Adrogue	40	9	16	15	25	37	43
20	Defensores Unidos	40	9	15	16	33	40	42
21	UAI Urquiza	40	6	21	13	23	36	39
22	CA Ituzaingo	40	1	14	25	27	64	17

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Excursionistas	Sportivo Italiano
Arsenal de Sarandi	0-3 L	0-0 D
Argentino Merlo	2-0 W	2-1 W
Talleres Remedios	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Italiano (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Excursionistas

WWLWWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
10/10	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	3-0	4-0	6	3	W
03/10	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
26/09	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
19/09	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
13/09	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
08/09	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
29/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	6	8	L
26/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
22/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	4	4	W

Sportivo Italiano

LLWWLDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
11/10	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-1	5	1	W
04/10	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
27/09	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	0	4	W
19/09	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
12/09	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
05/09	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
29/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	0	6	W
25/08	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
21/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Excursionistas vs Sportivo Italiano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Excursionistas win (72%). Probabilities: Excursionistas 72%, draw 21%, Sportivo Italiano 8%.

How many goals are expected in Excursionistas vs Sportivo Italiano?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Excursionistas 1.92 · Sportivo Italiano 0.48), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Excursionistas vs Sportivo Italiano?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.