Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 02/11, 19:00

Prediction: San Martin De Burzaco vs UAI Urquiza

Team pages: San Martin De Burzaco · UAI Urquiza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

San Martin De Burzaco0.43

UAI Urquiza2.07

1X2

6% 17% 76%

San Martin De Burzaco Draw UAI Urquiza

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

0-2 18%

Recent form · 10 last

San Martin De Burzaco 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLWLDL

UAI Urquiza 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDWWDW

Head-to-head

San Martin De Burzaco 2–1–2 UAI Urquiza (5 last)

UAI Urquiza0-0San Martin De Burzaco
San Martin De Burzaco5-0UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza2-1San Martin De Burzaco
UAI Urquiza1-0San Martin De Burzaco
San Martin De Burzaco1-0UAI Urquiza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Martin De Burzaco 1500 · UAI Urquiza 1501

	San Martin De Burzaco	Draw	UAI Urquiza
Our model	6%	19%	76%
Market	7%	16%	77%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Martin De Burzaco	UAI Urquiza
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	3.4 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

113.00

X5.50

21.17

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.85

2 (-2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 19:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 13.00▲	Bet365 13.00
X	3.25 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50
2	1.80 → 1.17▼	Bet365 1.17

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
02:54 +48’	4.00	3.25	1.80
03:44 +51’	6.50▲	4.00▲	1.40▼
05:05 +23’	9.00▲	4.50▲	1.28▼
18:23 +74’	13.00▲	5.50▲	1.17▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Martin De Burzaco 2–1–2 UAI Urquiza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	0-0 HT 0-0	San Martin De Burzaco
11/10/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	San Martin De Burzaco	5-0 HT 2-0	UAI Urquiza
24/05/25 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	2-1 HT 1-1	San Martin De Burzaco
27/07/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	UAI Urquiza	1-0 HT 0-0	San Martin De Burzaco
10/03/24 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	San Martin De Burzaco	1-0 HT 0-0	UAI Urquiza

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	42	24	9	9	69	33	81
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	42	21	14	7	56	28	77
3	Sportivo Italiano	42	20	12	10	48	33	72
4	Talleres Remedios	41	20	11	10	46	26	71
5	Atletico Camioneros	42	19	13	10	50	35	70
6	Villa Dalmine	42	18	14	10	40	28	68
7	Real Pilar	42	18	12	12	45	41	66
8	Deportivo Armenio	42	17	12	13	43	40	63
9	Deportivo Laferrere	41	15	13	13	50	52	58
10	Club Comunicaciones	41	14	15	12	39	35	57
11	Villa San Carlos	42	12	15	15	41	46	51
11	San Martin De Burzaco	41	12	15	14	41	46	51
13	CSD Flandria	42	13	10	19	40	50	49
14	Deportivo Merlo	42	11	16	15	40	55	49
15	Argentino Merlo	41	12	11	18	37	44	47
16	Argentino Quilmes	41	10	17	14	33	40	47
17	CS Dock Sud	41	11	14	16	41	49	47
18	Defensores Unidos	41	10	15	16	34	40	45
19	Deportivo Liniers	41	10	15	16	34	43	45
20	CA Brown de Adrogue	41	9	16	16	25	38	43
21	UAI Urquiza	41	7	21	13	25	36	42
22	CA Ituzaingo	41	1	14	26	28	67	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Martin De Burzaco	UAI Urquiza
Villa Dalmine	0-1 L	0-0 D
Excursionistas	1-1 D	1-2 L
Arsenal de Sarandi	1-3 L	0-2 L
Argentino Merlo	2-1 W	2-0 W
Talleres Remedios	2-3 L	0-1 L
Deportivo Laferrere	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Martin De Burzaco

WLDWWLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
17/10	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
10/10	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-3	3	5	L
03/10	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
26/09	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
19/09	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-1	1	5	W
12/09	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
05/09	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
30/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	1	4	L
25/08	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-2	3-2	7	7	W

UAI Urquiza

LLWLLDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Villa San Carlos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
17/10	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
12/10	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
05/10	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	3-2	7	4	W
27/09	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
19/09	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
12/09	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
06/09	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
29/08	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
25/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	11	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Martin De Burzaco vs UAI Urquiza?

According to our model, the most likely result is an UAI Urquiza win (76%). Probabilities: San Martin De Burzaco 6%, draw 17%, UAI Urquiza 76%.

How many goals are expected in San Martin De Burzaco vs UAI Urquiza?

The model expects 2.5 goals (San Martin De Burzaco 0.43 · UAI Urquiza 2.07), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in San Martin De Burzaco vs UAI Urquiza?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.