Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 24/10, 00:00

Prediction: Independiente FBC vs Paraguari AC

Team pages: Independiente FBC · Paraguari AC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Independiente FBC1.78

Paraguari AC1.57

1X2

42% 26% 33%

Independiente FBC Draw Paraguari AC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente FBC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWWWLWWL

Paraguari AC 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Independiente FBC 0–1 Paraguari AC (1 last)

Paraguari AC3-2Independiente FBC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente FBC 1522 · Paraguari AC 1584

	Independiente FBC	Draw	Paraguari AC
Our model	42%	25%	33%
Market	41%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paraguari AC (rating 1522 vs 1584).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente FBC	Paraguari AC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	2.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.1	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +8’	2.15	3.40	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente FBC 0–0–1 Paraguari AC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Paraguari AC	3-2 HT 0-1	Independiente FBC

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Santaní	29	18	3	8	49	27	57
2	General Caballero JLM	29	17	5	7	58	37	56
3	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	29	15	9	5	39	28	54
4	Sol de America	29	10	14	5	36	29	44
5	Paraguari AC	29	13	5	11	42	37	44
6	Independiente FBC	29	11	10	8	45	38	43
7	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	29	12	6	11	43	39	42
8	Carapegua	29	12	6	11	37	43	42
9	Resistencia FC	29	10	9	10	34	34	39
10	Club Atlético Tembetary	29	10	6	13	40	47	36
11	Deportivo Capiata	29	8	11	10	36	39	35
12	Fernando de la Mora	29	9	7	13	32	42	34
13	3 de Noviembre	29	7	8	14	36	44	29
14	Guairena FC	29	7	7	15	23	38	28
15	Tacuary	29	5	12	12	35	49	27
16	Encarnacion FC	29	7	4	18	28	42	25

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente FBC	Paraguari AC
Tacuary	2-3 L	4-2 W
Club Atlético Tembetary	3-0 W	1-2 L
Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	3-2 W	3-1 W
Carapegua	0-1 L	3-2 W
12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	4-0 W	2-3 L
Fernando de la Mora	0-0 D	2-0 W
3 de Noviembre	2-5 L	1-0 W
General Caballero JLM	0-0 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	6 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Paraguari AC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente FBC

DLDWWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-3	3	8	L
10/10	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
06/10	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
25/09	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
20/09	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	4-0	3	1	W
15/09	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
09/09	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
04/09	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
28/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-3	2-5	7	4	L
22/08	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	2	2	D

Paraguari AC

LWWWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
09/10	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	4-2	2	5	W
03/10	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
28/09	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	1-2	4	9	L
19/09	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	3-2	4	7	W
14/09	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	3-1	4	3	W
08/09	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	3-1	3	0	W
04/09	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
31/08	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
24/08	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-3	7	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente FBC vs Paraguari AC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente FBC win (42%). Probabilities: Independiente FBC 42%, draw 26%, Paraguari AC 33%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente FBC vs Paraguari AC?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Independiente FBC 1.78 · Paraguari AC 1.57), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente FBC vs Paraguari AC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.