Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 23/10, 21:30

Prediction: Guairena FC vs Carapegua

Team pages: Guairena FC · Carapegua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Guairena FC1.15

Carapegua1.47

1X2

29% 27% 44%

Guairena FC Draw Carapegua

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Guairena FC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDLLWL

Carapegua 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDWDWL

Head-to-head

Guairena FC 0–4–1 Carapegua (5 last)

Carapegua2-1Guairena FC
Carapegua3-3Guairena FC
Guairena FC1-1Carapegua
Guairena FC1-1Carapegua
Carapegua0-0Guairena FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guairena FC 1421 · Carapegua 1532

	Guairena FC	Draw	Carapegua
Our model	28%	28%	43%
Market	30%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carapegua (rating 1421 vs 1532).
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guairena FC	Carapegua
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4	2.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.50

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:54 +16’	3.00	3.50	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guairena FC 0–4–1 Carapegua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	2-1 HT 0-1	Guairena FC
17/08/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	3-3 HT 2-3	Guairena FC
09/05/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Guairena FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Carapegua
21/09/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Guairena FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Carapegua
15/06/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	0-0 HT 0-0	Guairena FC

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Santaní	29	18	3	8	49	27	57
2	General Caballero JLM	29	17	5	7	58	37	56
3	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	29	15	9	5	39	28	54
4	Sol de America	29	10	14	5	36	29	44
5	Paraguari AC	29	13	5	11	42	37	44
6	Independiente FBC	29	11	10	8	45	38	43
7	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	29	12	6	11	43	39	42
8	Carapegua	29	12	6	11	37	43	42
9	Resistencia FC	29	10	9	10	34	34	39
10	Club Atlético Tembetary	29	10	6	13	40	47	36
11	Deportivo Capiata	29	8	11	10	36	39	35
12	Fernando de la Mora	29	9	7	13	32	42	34
13	3 de Noviembre	29	7	8	14	36	44	29
14	Guairena FC	29	7	7	15	23	38	28
15	Tacuary	29	5	12	12	35	49	27
16	Encarnacion FC	29	7	4	18	28	42	25

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guairena FC	Carapegua
12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	0-2 L	1-0 W
Encarnacion FC	1-0 W	1-3 L
Paraguari AC	1-3 L	2-3 L
Resistencia FC	1-2 L	1-2 L
Sol de America	0-1 L	4-2 W
Deportivo Capiata	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Carapegua (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guairena FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
10/10	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
07/10	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
29/09	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
19/09	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
12/09	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-3	3	0	L
08/09	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-3	5	0	L
05/09	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-2	4	10	L
30/08	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
21/08	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	7	3	D

Carapegua

LWLWWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-2	4	2	L
10/10	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	4-2	4	9	W
02/10	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
25/09	Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
20/09	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
15/09	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
10/09	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
04/09	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	2-3	3	4	L
30/08	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
23/08	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	1-3	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guairena FC vs Carapegua?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Carapegua win (44%). Probabilities: Guairena FC 29%, draw 27%, Carapegua 44%.

How many goals are expected in Guairena FC vs Carapegua?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Guairena FC 1.15 · Carapegua 1.47), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Guairena FC vs Carapegua?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.