Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 28/10, 19:30

Prediction: Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Celje

Team pages: Olimpija Ljubljana · NK Celje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Olimpija Ljubljana1.11

NK Celje1.18

1X2

34% 29% 37%

Olimpija Ljubljana Draw NK Celje

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Olimpija Ljubljana 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWWLDW

NK Celje 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLLDWD

Head-to-head

Olimpija Ljubljana 2–1–3 NK Celje (6 last)

NK Celje1-0Olimpija Ljubljana
NK Celje2-0Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana3-1NK Celje
Olimpija Ljubljana1-0NK Celje
NK Celje0-0Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana0-5NK Celje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olimpija Ljubljana 1546 · NK Celje 1502

	Olimpija Ljubljana	Draw	NK Celje
Our model	33%	31%	36%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpija Ljubljana (rating 1546 vs 1502).
H2H favours NK Celje: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olimpija Ljubljana	NK Celje
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.1	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	2.5 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.2	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.25

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.49
2	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.69 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +7’	2.60	3.25	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:34 +233’	2.45	3.49	2.69

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpija Ljubljana 2–1–3 NK Celje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Celje	1-0 HT 0-0	Olimpija Ljubljana
15/04/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Celje	2-0 HT 1-0	Olimpija Ljubljana
08/02/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	Olimpija Ljubljana	3-1 HT 2-0	NK Celje
04/12/25 Slovenia Cup	Olimpija Ljubljana	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Celje
18/10/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Celje	0-0 HT 0-0	Olimpija Ljubljana
03/08/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	Olimpija Ljubljana	0-5 HT 0-2	NK Celje

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Maribor	12	6	6	0	21	9	24
2	FC Koper	12	6	4	2	19	11	22
3	NK Bravo	12	5	4	3	14	13	19
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	5	3	4	14	11	18
5	NK Nafta 1903	12	5	2	5	18	16	17
6	NK Celje	11	4	4	3	12	11	16
7	Aluminij Kidricevo	12	3	4	5	16	13	13
8	NS Mura	12	2	5	5	13	24	11
9	NK Brinje Grosuplje	12	3	2	7	15	25	11
10	NK Radomlje	11	1	4	6	14	23	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olimpija Ljubljana	NK Celje
Aluminij Kidricevo	1-0 W	1-0 W
NS Mura	3-3 D	0-0 D
NK Bravo	1-2 L	1-2 L
FC Koper	3-1 W	0-1 L
NK Brinje Grosuplje	3-0 W	1-4 L
NK Nafta 1903	1-0 W	3-1 W
NK Maribor	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Olimpija Ljubljana (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Olimpija Ljubljana

WLDWDWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
10/10	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	3-3	7	5	D
20/09	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	6	11	L
12/09	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	3-1	3	8	W
05/09	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
29/08	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
21/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
15/08	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
08/08	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
02/08	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

NK Celje

DWWLWLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
10/10	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
20/09	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
12/09	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
06/09	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
02/09	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	2-0	14	4	W
30/08	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-4	6	3	L
15/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	2-1	3-1	9	3	W
08/08	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
01/08	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	4	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Celje?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Celje win (37%). Probabilities: Olimpija Ljubljana 34%, draw 29%, NK Celje 37%.

How many goals are expected in Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Celje?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Olimpija Ljubljana 1.11 · NK Celje 1.18), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Celje?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.