Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 06/11, 17:30

Prediction: NK Nafta 1903 vs Olimpija Ljubljana

Team pages: NK Nafta 1903 · Olimpija Ljubljana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

NK Nafta 19030.99

Olimpija Ljubljana1.62

1X2

23% 26% 52%

NK Nafta 1903 Draw Olimpija Ljubljana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Nafta 1903 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLWDDL

Olimpija Ljubljana 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWLDWDW

Head-to-head

NK Nafta 1903 0–1–5 Olimpija Ljubljana (6 last)

Olimpija Ljubljana1-0NK Nafta 1903
NK Nafta 19031-1Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana3-0NK Nafta 1903
NK Nafta 19030-1Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana2-0NK Nafta 1903
NK Nafta 19031-3Olimpija Ljubljana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Nafta 1903 1500 · Olimpija Ljubljana 1556

	NK Nafta 1903	Draw	Olimpija Ljubljana
Our model	22%	27%	51%
Market	23%	25%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpija Ljubljana (rating 1500 vs 1556).
H2H favours Olimpija Ljubljana: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Nafta 1903	Olimpija Ljubljana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	2.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	6.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.60

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.20 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.73
2	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.79

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
18:12 +3’	3.90	3.60	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:41 +18’	4.15	3.58	1.80
18:54 +28’	4.21▲	3.62▲	1.81▲
12:07 +1’	4.20▼	3.67▲	1.81▼
12:57 +12’	4.20	3.73▲	1.79▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Nafta 1903 0–1–5 Olimpija Ljubljana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/08/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	Olimpija Ljubljana	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Nafta 1903
12/04/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Nafta 1903	1-1 HT 0-0	Olimpija Ljubljana
16/02/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	Olimpija Ljubljana	3-0 HT 1-0	NK Nafta 1903
19/10/24 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Nafta 1903	0-1 HT 0-1	Olimpija Ljubljana
05/08/24 Slovenia Prva Liga	Olimpija Ljubljana	2-0 HT 1-0	NK Nafta 1903
08/03/23 Slovenia Cup	NK Nafta 1903	1-3 HT 0-3	Olimpija Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Koper	13	7	4	2	23	11	25
2	NK Maribor	14	6	6	2	21	14	24
3	Olimpija Ljubljana	14	6	4	4	16	12	22
4	NK Bravo	13	5	5	3	14	13	20
5	NK Celje	13	5	5	3	17	12	20
6	NK Nafta 1903	14	5	3	6	18	20	18
7	Aluminij Kidricevo	14	4	5	5	21	13	17
8	NS Mura	14	2	7	5	14	25	13
9	NK Brinje Grosuplje	14	3	4	7	15	25	13
10	NK Radomlje	13	1	5	7	15	29	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Nafta 1903	Olimpija Ljubljana
NK Celje	0-4 L	1-1 D
Aluminij Kidricevo	0-0 D	1-0 W
NS Mura	0-0 D	3-3 D
NK Bravo	1-0 W	1-2 L
FC Koper	0-2 L	3-1 W
NK Brinje Grosuplje	2-1 W	3-0 W
NK Radomlje	3-1 W	0-0 D
NK Maribor	2-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Olimpija Ljubljana (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Nafta 1903

LLLWWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-3	0-4	3	1	L
28/10	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
17/10	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
11/10	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
19/09	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
11/09	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
04/09	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	3-1	5	3	W
30/08	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-2	2-3	1	5	L
21/08	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
15/08	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-2	1-3	4	3	L

Olimpija Ljubljana

DWDWWLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
28/10	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
16/10	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
10/10	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	3-3	7	5	D
20/09	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	6	11	L
12/09	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	3-1	3	8	W
05/09	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
29/08	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
21/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
15/08	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	4	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Nafta 1903 vs Olimpija Ljubljana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Olimpija Ljubljana win (52%). Probabilities: NK Nafta 1903 23%, draw 26%, Olimpija Ljubljana 52%.

How many goals are expected in NK Nafta 1903 vs Olimpija Ljubljana?

The model expects 2.6 goals (NK Nafta 1903 0.99 · Olimpija Ljubljana 1.62), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Nafta 1903 vs Olimpija Ljubljana?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.