Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 07/11, 15:00

Prediction: FC Koper vs NS Mura

Team pages: FC Koper · NS Mura

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

FC Koper1.87

NS Mura0.9

1X2

60% 24% 17%

FC Koper Draw NS Mura

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Koper 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWLWDWW

NS Mura 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDLDDDDD

Head-to-head

FC Koper 5–1 NS Mura (6 last)

NS Mura0-1FC Koper
NS Mura0-1FC Koper
FC Koper3-0NS Mura
NS Mura3-2FC Koper
FC Koper2-1NS Mura
NS Mura1-3FC Koper

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Koper 1567 · NS Mura 1436

	FC Koper	Draw	NS Mura
Our model	59%	24%	16%
Market	60%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Koper (rating 1567 vs 1436).
H2H favours FC Koper: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Koper	NS Mura
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.8	0.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	2.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.5	5.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.90

25.25

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.97

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.61 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 3.99
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:15 +8’	1.50	3.90	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +6’	1.59	3.93	5.08
18:12 +11’	1.61▲	3.99▲	5.17▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Koper 5–0–1 NS Mura

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NS Mura	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Koper
03/05/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NS Mura	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Koper
01/03/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	FC Koper	3-0 HT 1-0	NS Mura
07/11/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NS Mura	3-2 HT 2-1	FC Koper
23/08/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	FC Koper	2-1 HT 1-0	NS Mura
25/05/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NS Mura	1-3 HT 1-2	FC Koper

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Koper	13	7	4	2	23	11	25
2	NK Maribor	14	6	6	2	21	14	24
3	Olimpija Ljubljana	14	6	4	4	16	12	22
4	NK Bravo	13	5	5	3	14	13	20
5	NK Celje	13	5	5	3	17	12	20
6	NK Nafta 1903	14	5	3	6	18	20	18
7	Aluminij Kidricevo	14	4	5	5	21	13	17
8	NS Mura	14	2	7	5	14	25	13
9	NK Brinje Grosuplje	14	3	4	7	15	25	13
10	NK Radomlje	13	1	5	7	15	29	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Koper	NS Mura
NK Maribor	4-0 W	1-1 D
NK Brinje Grosuplje	5-0 W	0-0 D
NK Radomlje	3-3 D	1-1 D
NK Nafta 1903	2-0 W	0-0 D
Olimpija Ljubljana	1-3 L	3-3 D
NK Celje	1-0 W	0-0 D
Aluminij Kidricevo	1-0 W	1-6 L
NK Bravo	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 6 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Koper (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Koper

LDWWWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	4-0	2	5	W
18/10	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	2-0	5-0	3	5	W
10/10	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	2-2	3-3	10	8	D
19/09	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
12/09	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-3	4	8	L
06/09	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	5	8	W
28/08	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/08	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
16/08	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
09/08	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L

NS Mura

WLLDLDDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
27/10	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	2	11	D
17/10	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
10/10	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	3-3	7	5	D
20/09	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
13/09	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-3	1-6	5	6	L
06/09	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	0	6	D
29/08	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
22/08	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
16/08	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Koper vs NS Mura?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Koper win (60%). Probabilities: FC Koper 60%, draw 24%, NS Mura 17%.

How many goals are expected in FC Koper vs NS Mura?

The model expects 2.77 goals (FC Koper 1.87 · NS Mura 0.9), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Koper vs NS Mura?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.