Football · Uruguay Segunda · 25/10, 00:00

Prediction: Plaza Colonia vs Tacuarembo

Team pages: Plaza Colonia · Tacuarembo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

Plaza Colonia1.42

Tacuarembo0.73

1X2

53% 28% 19%

Plaza Colonia Draw Tacuarembo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Plaza Colonia 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDDLDW

Tacuarembo 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLDDDLLL

Head-to-head

Plaza Colonia 5–0 Tacuarembo (5 last)

Tacuarembo0-2Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia1-0Tacuarembo
Tacuarembo0-1Plaza Colonia
Tacuarembo0-1Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia2-0Tacuarembo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Plaza Colonia 1520 · Tacuarembo 1425

	Plaza Colonia	Draw	Tacuarembo
Our model	52%	30%	18%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Plaza Colonia (rating 1520 vs 1425).
H2H favours Plaza Colonia: 5-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Plaza Colonia	Tacuarembo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	0.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	1.9 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.8	5.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.67▼	Pinn 1.68
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	4.33 → 4.50▲	Pinn 4.84 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:39 +7’	1.70	3.40	4.33
19:20 +26’	1.67▼	3.50▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:25 +50’	1.79	3.26	4.36
18:58 +49’	1.68▼	3.43▲	4.84▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Plaza Colonia 5–0–0 Tacuarembo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Uruguay Segunda	Tacuarembo	0-2	Plaza Colonia
17/08/24 Uruguay Segunda	Plaza Colonia	1-0 HT 0-0	Tacuarembo
19/05/24 Uruguay Segunda	Tacuarembo	0-1	Plaza Colonia
05/08/18 Uruguay Segunda	Tacuarembo	0-1	Plaza Colonia
10/03/18 Uruguay Segunda	Plaza Colonia	2-0	Tacuarembo

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Plaza Colonia	Tacuarembo
La Luz	1-1 D	0-1 L
Cerrito	1-3 L	1-2 L
CA Atenas	0-0 D	0-1 L
Paysandu FC	1-1 D	2-2 D
Huracan DPA	2-1 W	1-1 D
Uruguay Montevideo	1-0 W	2-2 D
Club Oriental	0-2 L	0-1 L
Colon FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Atletico Fenix Montevideo	4-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Plaza Colonia (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Plaza Colonia

WDLWWDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
11/10	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
04/10	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-2	1-3	7	9	L
27/09	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	3	10	D
19/09	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-1	6	10	W
08/09	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
31/08	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
22/08	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
16/08	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	3-1	4-1	1	7	W

Tacuarembo

WLLLDDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
10/10	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-2	1	6	L
04/10	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
29/09	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	2-1	2-2	2	8	D
20/09	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
12/09	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-2	5	1	D
06/09	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
29/08	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
23/08	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	6	15	L
16/08	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Plaza Colonia vs Tacuarembo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Plaza Colonia win (53%). Probabilities: Plaza Colonia 53%, draw 28%, Tacuarembo 19%.

How many goals are expected in Plaza Colonia vs Tacuarembo?

The model expects 2.15 goals (Plaza Colonia 1.42 · Tacuarembo 0.73), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Plaza Colonia vs Tacuarembo?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.