Football · Uruguay Segunda · 31/10, 20:00

Prediction: Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Cerrito

Team pages: Atletico Fenix Montevideo · Cerrito

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1.51

Cerrito1.21

1X2

43% 28% 29%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo Draw Cerrito

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWDLWDLL

Cerrito 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDDLWWLD

Head-to-head

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 4–2–0 Cerrito (6 last)

Cerrito1-1Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo4-1Cerrito
Cerrito2-2Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo3-2Cerrito
Cerrito0-2Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo2-0Cerrito

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1488 · Cerrito 1507

	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Draw	Cerrito
Our model	43%	28%	29%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Fenix Montevideo: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 13.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Cerrito
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	22/22/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.5	1 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7 / 0.7	6.9 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.10▼	Pinn 2.14
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.21
2	2.75 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.27 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:44 +8’	2.35	3.10	2.75
22:19 +19’	1.95▼	3.20▲	3.50▲
17:00 +13’	2.10▲	3.20	3.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:26 +30’	2.02	3.29	3.50
17:12	2.14▲	3.21▼	3.27▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 4–2–0 Cerrito

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Uruguay Segunda	Cerrito	1-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
12/04/26 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	4-1 HT 3-0	Cerrito
22/09/25 Uruguay Segunda	Cerrito	2-2 HT 0-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
29/06/25 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	3-2 HT 0-2	Cerrito
15/09/22 Uruguay Clausura	Cerrito	0-2 HT 0-2	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
10/04/22 Uruguay Apertura	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2-0 HT 1-0	Cerrito

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	6	3	2	1	13	7	11
2	Huracan DPA	6	2	4	0	9	6	10
3	Uruguay Montevideo	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
4	Cerrito	6	2	3	1	8	8	9
5	La Luz	6	1	4	1	5	6	7
6	CA Atenas	6	1	1	4	5	11	4
7	Tacuarembo	6	0	3	3	5	9	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Cerrito
CA Atenas	0-4 L	0-0 D
Paysandu FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Huracan DPA	0-0 D	1-2 L
Uruguay Montevideo	2-0 W	3-0 W
CA River Plate	1-0 W	1-1 D
Rentistas	1-2 L	2-2 D
Miramar Misiones	1-1 D	0-1 L
Tacuarembo	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Fenix Montevideo (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Fenix Montevideo

WDLWDLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-3	0-4	6	5	L
17/10	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
12/10	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
04/10	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	7	8	W
27/09	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-3	3	13	L
19/09	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
13/09	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
06/09	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-2	9	8	L
30/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
23/08	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	1	15	W

Cerrito

WLLDDLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-2	1	8	D
18/10	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
10/10	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
04/10	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	2-0	3-1	1	9	W
27/09	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-2	3	9	L
20/09	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
13/09	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
05/09	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-2	1-2	4	6	L
29/08	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-2	3	12	L
22/08	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	–	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Cerrito?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Fenix Montevideo win (43%). Probabilities: Atletico Fenix Montevideo 43%, draw 28%, Cerrito 29%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Cerrito?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1.51 · Cerrito 1.21), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Cerrito?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.