Football · Uruguay Segunda · 25/10, 17:00

Prediction: CA Atenas vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Team pages: CA Atenas · Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

CA Atenas1.12

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1.37

1X2

30% 29% 42%

CA Atenas Draw Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Atenas 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWDWDWDL

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLWDLWDL

Head-to-head

CA Atenas 3–3 Atletico Fenix Montevideo (6 last)

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1-0CA Atenas
CA Atenas1-4Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo1-2CA Atenas
CA Atenas1-0Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo2-1CA Atenas
CA Atenas3-1Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Atenas 1509 · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1489

	CA Atenas	Draw	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Our model	29%	29%	41%
Market	30%	28%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 12.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Atenas	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.5	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.4	7.2 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.20

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.20 ★
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
2	2.55 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.26

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
23:11 +6’	2.55	3.10	2.55
10:15 +4’	3.00▲	3.20▲	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:16 +1’	3.14	2.91	2.23
09:26 +54’	3.20▲	2.96▲	2.26▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Atenas 3–0–3 Atletico Fenix Montevideo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1-0 HT 0-0	CA Atenas
28/04/26 Uruguay Segunda	CA Atenas	1-4 HT 0-2	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
26/10/25 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1-2 HT 1-2	CA Atenas
03/08/25 Uruguay Segunda	CA Atenas	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
21/10/18 Uruguay Clausura	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2-1 HT 0-0	CA Atenas
22/04/18 Uruguay Apertura	CA Atenas	3-1 HT 2-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	6	3	2	1	13	7	11
2	Huracan DPA	6	2	4	0	9	6	10
3	Uruguay Montevideo	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
4	Cerrito	6	2	3	1	8	8	9
5	La Luz	6	1	4	1	5	6	7
6	CA Atenas	6	1	1	4	5	11	4
7	Tacuarembo	6	0	3	3	5	9	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Atenas	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Rentistas	0-3 L	1-2 L
Miramar Misiones	1-1 D	1-1 D
Tacuarembo	1-0 W	2-0 W
Plaza Colonia	0-0 D	1-4 L
CA River Plate	3-2 W	1-0 W
Paysandu FC	0-2 L	0-1 L
Huracan DPA	0-0 D	0-0 D
Uruguay Montevideo	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Fenix Montevideo (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Atenas

WDLWDWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-2	0-3	11	5	L
11/10	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
04/10	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
27/09	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
20/09	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
13/09	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
06/09	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-1	3-2	5	6	W
30/08	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
23/08	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
15/08	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-1	5	6	W

Atletico Fenix Montevideo

LWDLWDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
12/10	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
04/10	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	7	8	W
27/09	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-3	3	13	L
19/09	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
13/09	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
06/09	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-2	9	8	L
30/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
23/08	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	1	15	W
16/08	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	1-3	1-4	3	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Atenas vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Fenix Montevideo win (42%). Probabilities: CA Atenas 30%, draw 29%, Atletico Fenix Montevideo 42%.

How many goals are expected in CA Atenas vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

The model expects 2.49 goals (CA Atenas 1.12 · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1.37), with a 57% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Atenas vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.