Football · Panama Liga Prom · 23/10, 03:00

Prediction: SD Atletico Nacional vs Aguilas de la U

Team pages: SD Atletico Nacional · Aguilas de la U

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

SD Atletico Nacional1.38

Aguilas de la U1.73

1X2

30% 26% 45%

SD Atletico Nacional Draw Aguilas de la U

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SD Atletico Nacional 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWWWW

Aguilas de la U 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

SD Atletico Nacional 1–3–2 Aguilas de la U (6 last)

Aguilas de la U4-1SD Atletico Nacional
Aguilas de la U0-0SD Atletico Nacional
SD Atletico Nacional0-1Aguilas de la U
SD Atletico Nacional2-1Aguilas de la U
Aguilas de la U1-1SD Atletico Nacional
SD Atletico Nacional1-1Aguilas de la U

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SD Atletico Nacional 1515 · Aguilas de la U 1600

	SD Atletico Nacional	Draw	Aguilas de la U
Our model	30%	26%	45%
Market	30%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aguilas de la U (rating 1515 vs 1600).
H2H favours Aguilas de la U: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SD Atletico Nacional	Aguilas de la U
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.1	3.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/17/33%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.5	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	8.2 / 0.5	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.50

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 1.3 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:48 +18’	3.00	3.50	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SD Atletico Nacional 1–3–2 Aguilas de la U

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Panama Liga Prom	Aguilas de la U	4-1	SD Atletico Nacional
02/05/26 Panama Liga Prom	Aguilas de la U	0-0 HT 0-0	SD Atletico Nacional
30/01/26 Panama Liga Prom	SD Atletico Nacional	0-1 HT 0-0	Aguilas de la U
06/04/25 Panama Liga Prom	SD Atletico Nacional	2-1 HT 0-0	Aguilas de la U
19/01/25 Panama Liga Prom	Aguilas de la U	1-1 HT 0-0	SD Atletico Nacional
16/04/23 Panama Liga Prom	SD Atletico Nacional	1-1 HT 1-1	Aguilas de la U

Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, West-South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aguilas de la U	12	10	0	2	37	9	30
2	Udelas FC	12	10	0	2	32	11	30
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves	11	7	3	1	23	13	24
4	SD Atletico Nacional	11	7	0	4	24	23	21
5	San Francisco Reserves	12	6	1	5	19	20	19
6	Union Cocle Reserves	11	2	3	6	11	23	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SD Atletico Nacional	Aguilas de la U
La Familia FC	2-1 W	3-2 W
Herrera FC Reserves	3-2 W	6-0 W
Rayados de Chiriqui	2-0 W	4-0 W
Bocas	3-2 W	3-1 W
Veraguas United Reserves	3-4 L	3-0 W
CD Universitario Reserves	3-1 W	5-1 W
CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves	2-4 L	0-2 L
Udelas FC	1-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Aguilas de la U (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SD Atletico Nacional

WLLLWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	La Familia FC Panama Liga Prom	2-1	2-1	5	11	W
26/09	Herrera FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	3-2	–	–	W
17/09	Rayados de Chiriqui Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-0	7	8	W
12/09	Bocas Panama Liga Prom	–	3-2	–	–	W
04/09	Veraguas United Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-3	3-4	6	11	L
28/08	CD Universitario Reserves Panama Liga Prom	2-0	3-1	10	7	W
22/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	2-4	–	–	L
14/08	Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom	0-1	1-3	4	8	L
08/08	Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom	–	1-4	–	–	L
01/08	Union Cocle Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-0	7	7	W

Aguilas de la U

WWWWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
03/10	Bocas Panama Liga Prom	–	3-1	–	–	W
25/09	Veraguas United Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	3-0	2	5	W
20/09	CD Universitario Reserves Panama Liga Prom	2-0	5-1	4	2	W
13/09	La Familia FC Panama Liga Prom	3-2	3-2	7	3	W
05/09	Herrera FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	6-0	–	–	W
29/08	Rayados de Chiriqui Panama Liga Prom	–	4-0	–	–	W
22/08	Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-0	2	6	W
15/08	San Francisco Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
08/08	SD Atletico Nacional Panama Liga Prom	–	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SD Atletico Nacional vs Aguilas de la U?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Aguilas de la U win (45%). Probabilities: SD Atletico Nacional 30%, draw 26%, Aguilas de la U 45%.

How many goals are expected in SD Atletico Nacional vs Aguilas de la U?

The model expects 3.11 goals (SD Atletico Nacional 1.38 · Aguilas de la U 1.73), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SD Atletico Nacional vs Aguilas de la U?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.