Football · Iceland Premier League Women · 19/10, 19:00
Prediction: Stjarnan (W) vs Breidablik (W)
Team pages: Stjarnan (W) · Breidablik (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.04Total
Stjarnan (W)1.12
Breidablik (W)2.91
1X2
Stjarnan (W)
Draw
Breidablik (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-2 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Stjarnan (W)
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Breidablik (W)
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stjarnan (W)
3–3
Breidablik (W)
(6 last)
- Stjarnan (W)2-0Breidablik (W)
- Breidablik (W)1-3Stjarnan (W)
- Stjarnan (W)1-6Breidablik (W)
- Breidablik (W)1-2Stjarnan (W)
- Stjarnan (W)0-3Breidablik (W)
- Breidablik (W)6-1Stjarnan (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stjarnan (W) 1441 · Breidablik (W) 1554
| Stjarnan (W) | Draw | Breidablik (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| Market | 11% | 16% | 73% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Breidablik (W) (rating 1441 vs 1554).
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stjarnan (W) | Breidablik (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.2 | 2.6 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.1 | 1.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.9 | 3.9 / 8.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 1.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stjarnan (W) 3–0–3 Breidablik (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/26 Iceland Premier League Women | Stjarnan (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Breidablik (W) |
| 13/06/26 Iceland Premier League Women | Breidablik (W) | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Stjarnan (W) |
| 20/03/26 Iceland Cup Women | Stjarnan (W) | 1-6 HT 1-3 | Breidablik (W) |
| 25/09/25 Iceland Premier League Women | Breidablik (W) | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Stjarnan (W) |
| 21/06/25 Iceland Premier League Women | Stjarnan (W) | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Breidablik (W) |
| 15/04/25 Iceland Premier League Women | Breidablik (W) | 6-1 HT 5-1 | Stjarnan (W) |
Standings · Iceland Premier League Women · Besta deild, Women 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breidablik (W) | 21 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 57 | 27 | 46 |
| 2 | FH Hafnarfjordur (W) | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 64 | 39 | 43 |
| 3 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 37 | 46 | 30 |
| 4 | Throttur Reykjavik (W) | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 29 |
| 5 | Grindavik/Njardvik (W) | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 40 | 29 |
| 6 | Stjarnan (W) | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 32 | 33 | 27 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stjarnan (W) | Breidablik (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Grindavik/Njardvik (W) | 0-0 D | 4-1 W |
| Throttur Reykjavik (W) | 1-5 L | 5-4 W |
| FH Hafnarfjordur (W) | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 4 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Breidablik (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stjarnan (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10 | Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 27/09 | Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 18/09 | FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 07/09 | Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 20/08 | Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 13/08 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 06/08 | Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 28/07 | Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 21/07 | FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
1-4 | 3-7 | 8 | 1 | L |
Breidablik (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
1-4 | 5-4 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 26/09 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 17/09 | Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 07/09 | Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 20/08 | Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 18 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 12/08 | Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 29/07 | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 21/07 | Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
6-0 | 7-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stjarnan (W) vs Breidablik (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Breidablik (W) win (73%). Probabilities: Stjarnan (W) 11%, draw 16%, Breidablik (W) 73%.
How many goals are expected in Stjarnan (W) vs Breidablik (W)?
The model expects 4.04 goals (Stjarnan (W) 1.12 · Breidablik (W) 2.91), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Stjarnan (W) vs Breidablik (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.