Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 17/10, 20:00

Prediction: Real Pilar vs CA Ituzaingo

Team pages: Real Pilar · CA Ituzaingo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Real Pilar1.87

CA Ituzaingo0.57

1X2

68% 22% 10%

Real Pilar Draw CA Ituzaingo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Pilar 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDLWWLWL

CA Ituzaingo 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

DDLLLDLLLD

Head-to-head

Real Pilar 0–3–3 CA Ituzaingo (6 last)

CA Ituzaingo2-0Real Pilar
CA Ituzaingo0-0Real Pilar
Real Pilar0-0CA Ituzaingo
Real Pilar0-1CA Ituzaingo
CA Ituzaingo2-1Real Pilar
Real Pilar0-0CA Ituzaingo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Pilar 1511 · CA Ituzaingo 1434

	Real Pilar	Draw	CA Ituzaingo
Our model	68%	23%	10%
Market	68%	21%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Pilar (rating 1511 vs 1434).
H2H favours CA Ituzaingo: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Pilar	CA Ituzaingo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.6	1.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.30

X4.20

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.77

2 (+1.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:59 +11’	1.30	4.20	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Pilar 0–3–3 CA Ituzaingo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/06/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	2-0 HT 0-0	Real Pilar
13/07/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Pilar
10/02/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Real Pilar	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Ituzaingo
08/08/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Real Pilar	0-1 HT 0-0	CA Ituzaingo
21/03/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Ituzaingo	2-1 HT 0-0	Real Pilar
23/01/21 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Real Pilar	0-0 HT 0-0	CA Ituzaingo

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excursionistas	39	23	8	8	63	30	77
2	Arsenal de Sarandi	39	20	12	7	53	26	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	19	11	9	47	29	68
4	Talleres Remedios	39	19	11	9	41	24	68
5	Villa Dalmine	39	17	14	8	39	24	65
6	Atletico Camioneros	39	17	13	9	44	30	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	17	10	12	42	38	61
8	Real Pilar	39	17	10	12	42	39	61
9	Club Comunicaciones	39	14	14	11	39	34	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	13	13	13	47	51	52
11	San Martin De Burzaco	39	12	14	13	40	44	50
12	CS Dock Sud	39	11	14	14	40	43	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	11	14	14	37	43	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	10	15	14	37	52	45
15	Argentino Merlo	39	11	11	17	34	41	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	9	17	13	32	39	44
17	Deportivo Liniers	39	10	14	15	32	40	44
18	CA Brown de Adrogue	39	9	15	15	25	37	42
19	CSD Flandria	39	11	9	19	35	48	42
20	Defensores Unidos	39	9	14	16	33	40	41
21	UAI Urquiza	39	6	20	13	22	35	38
22	CA Ituzaingo	39	1	13	25	27	64	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Pilar	CA Ituzaingo
UAI Urquiza	0-1 L	2-3 L
Villa Dalmine	2-0 W	1-3 L
Excursionistas	0-3 L	1-2 L
Arsenal de Sarandi	2-1 W	0-2 L
Argentino Merlo	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Real Pilar (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Pilar

DWWDLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	11	0	L
03/10	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
26/09	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
19/09	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
12/09	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
05/09	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
29/08	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
25/08	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	2	4	W
22/08	Deportivo Armenio Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
15/08	CSD Flandria Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	1	D

CA Ituzaingo

DDLLLDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Argentino Quilmes Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
05/10	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	2-3	1	4	L
26/09	Defensores Unidos Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
19/09	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-3	1-3	3	3	L
12/09	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
08/09	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-2	7	2	L
29/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
25/08	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	0	4	L
22/08	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	1	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Pilar vs CA Ituzaingo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Pilar win (68%). Probabilities: Real Pilar 68%, draw 22%, CA Ituzaingo 10%.

How many goals are expected in Real Pilar vs CA Ituzaingo?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Real Pilar 1.87 · CA Ituzaingo 0.57), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Pilar vs CA Ituzaingo?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.