Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 17/10, 21:30

Prediction: Club Mercedes vs Leones de Rosario

Team pages: Club Mercedes · Leones de Rosario

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.82Total

Club Mercedes0.77

Leones de Rosario1.05

1X2

26% 33% 41%

Club Mercedes Draw Leones de Rosario

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 56% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Mercedes 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Leones de Rosario 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Mercedes 1500 · Leones de Rosario 1545

	Club Mercedes	Draw	Leones de Rosario
Our model	25%	35%	40%
Market	26%	32%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 1.82 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leones de Rosario (rating 1500 vs 1545).
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Mercedes	Leones de Rosario
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.2	1.1 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.40

X2.80

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.85

Under 1.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:25 +47’	3.40	2.80	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lujan	32	19	7	6	46	22	64
2	Canuelas FC	32	17	10	5	43	22	61
3	Deportivo Espanol	32	12	16	4	26	16	52
4	Leones de Rosario	32	13	12	7	31	25	51
5	Central Cordoba de Rosario	32	13	10	9	32	23	49
6	General Lamadrid	32	9	14	9	23	27	41
7	Sportivo Barracas	32	11	7	14	32	32	40
8	El Porvenir	32	8	16	8	28	32	40
9	Central Ballester	32	10	8	14	29	34	38
10	CA Atlas	32	9	10	13	24	29	37
11	CA Claypole	32	9	9	14	27	40	36
12	Yupanqui	32	8	11	13	33	36	35
13	Fenix	32	8	10	14	24	32	34
14	Deportivo Muniz	32	6	11	15	23	38	29

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Mercedes	Leones de Rosario
CA Lugano	1-0 W	0-0 D
Defensores de Cambaceres	0-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Mercedes

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
05/10	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
26/09	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
20/09	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/09	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
05/09	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
30/08	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-4	6	5	L
22/08	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
18/08	CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
08/08	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	2	3	L

Leones de Rosario

WLWWWDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
05/10	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
28/09	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
20/09	General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
12/09	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/09	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
31/08	CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
25/08	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
22/08	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
17/08	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	3	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Mercedes vs Leones de Rosario?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Leones de Rosario win (41%). Probabilities: Club Mercedes 26%, draw 33%, Leones de Rosario 41%.

How many goals are expected in Club Mercedes vs Leones de Rosario?

The model expects 1.82 goals (Club Mercedes 0.77 · Leones de Rosario 1.05), with a 51% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Mercedes vs Leones de Rosario?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.