Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 25/10, 19:00

Prediction: Canuelas FC vs CA Lugano

Team pages: Canuelas FC · CA Lugano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Canuelas FC1.47

CA Lugano0.83

1X2

51% 29% 20%

Canuelas FC Draw CA Lugano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Canuelas FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWDWW

CA Lugano 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWDDDLLL

Head-to-head

Canuelas FC 3–0 CA Lugano (3 last)

CA Lugano0-1Canuelas FC
Canuelas FC3-1CA Lugano
CA Lugano0-2Canuelas FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Canuelas FC 1584 · CA Lugano 1472

	Canuelas FC	Draw	CA Lugano
Our model	51%	29%	20%
Market	51%	29%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Canuelas FC (rating 1584 vs 1472).
H2H favours Canuelas FC: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Canuelas FC	CA Lugano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.6	0.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:49 +24’	1.75	3.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Canuelas FC 3–0–0 CA Lugano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/10/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Lugano	0-1 HT 0-1	Canuelas FC
04/10/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Canuelas FC	3-1 HT 2-1	CA Lugano
27/09/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Lugano	0-2 HT 0-0	Canuelas FC

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lujan	32	19	7	6	46	22	64
2	Canuelas FC	32	17	10	5	43	22	61
3	Deportivo Espanol	32	12	16	4	26	16	52
4	Leones de Rosario	32	13	12	7	31	25	51
5	Central Cordoba de Rosario	32	13	10	9	32	23	49
6	General Lamadrid	32	9	14	9	23	27	41
7	Sportivo Barracas	32	11	7	14	32	32	40
8	El Porvenir	32	8	16	8	28	32	40
9	Central Ballester	32	10	8	14	29	34	38
10	CA Atlas	32	9	10	13	24	29	37
11	CA Claypole	32	9	9	14	27	40	36
12	Yupanqui	32	8	11	13	33	36	35
13	Fenix	32	8	10	14	24	32	34
14	Deportivo Muniz	32	6	11	15	23	38	29

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Canuelas FC	CA Lugano
Lujan	3-2 W	1-2 L
Leones de Rosario	1-0 W	0-0 D
Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Canuelas FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Canuelas FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
12/10	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	4-0	6	6	W
05/10	El Porvenir Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	2	6	D
27/09	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
21/09	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
12/09	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
06/09	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	3-2	1	8	W
31/08	General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	1	3	W
22/08	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
15/08	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-2	1-2	4	9	L

CA Lugano

LWDWDDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
12/10	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
04/10	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-3	3	8	L
26/09	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	7	D
20/09	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	8	7	D
12/09	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
06/09	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
22/08	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
16/08	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Canuelas FC vs CA Lugano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Canuelas FC win (51%). Probabilities: Canuelas FC 51%, draw 29%, CA Lugano 20%.

How many goals are expected in Canuelas FC vs CA Lugano?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Canuelas FC 1.47 · CA Lugano 0.83), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Canuelas FC vs CA Lugano?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.