Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 26/10, 19:00

Prediction: Leones de Rosario vs Club Mercedes

Team pages: Leones de Rosario · Club Mercedes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Leones de Rosario1.28

Club Mercedes0.75

1X2

48% 31% 21%

Leones de Rosario Draw Club Mercedes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Leones de Rosario 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDDLWWL

Club Mercedes 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWWDWW

Head-to-head

Leones de Rosario 0–1 Club Mercedes (1 last)

Club Mercedes2-1Leones de Rosario

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leones de Rosario 1526 · Club Mercedes 1521

	Leones de Rosario	Draw	Club Mercedes
Our model	48%	32%	21%
Market	49%	30%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leones de Rosario	Club Mercedes
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.7	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	1.5 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	5.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.00

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:57 +24’	1.85	3.00	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leones de Rosario 0–0–1 Club Mercedes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/10/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	2-1 HT 0-1	Leones de Rosario

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lujan	32	19	7	6	46	22	64
2	Canuelas FC	32	17	10	5	43	22	61
3	Deportivo Espanol	32	12	16	4	26	16	52
4	Leones de Rosario	32	13	12	7	31	25	51
5	Central Cordoba de Rosario	32	13	10	9	32	23	49
6	General Lamadrid	32	9	14	9	23	27	41
7	Sportivo Barracas	32	11	7	14	32	32	40
8	El Porvenir	32	8	16	8	28	32	40
9	Central Ballester	32	10	8	14	29	34	38
10	CA Atlas	32	9	10	13	24	29	37
11	CA Claypole	32	9	9	14	27	40	36
12	Yupanqui	32	8	11	13	33	36	35
13	Fenix	32	8	10	14	24	32	34
14	Deportivo Muniz	32	6	11	15	23	38	29

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leones de Rosario

LWWWDDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-2	2	11	L
12/10	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
05/10	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
28/09	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
20/09	General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
12/09	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/09	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
31/08	CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
25/08	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
22/08	Canuelas FC Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	3	L

Club Mercedes

LWLLDWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	2-1	1	11	W
12/10	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
05/10	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
26/09	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
20/09	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/09	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
05/09	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
30/08	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-4	6	5	L
22/08	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
18/08	CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leones de Rosario vs Club Mercedes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leones de Rosario win (48%). Probabilities: Leones de Rosario 48%, draw 31%, Club Mercedes 21%.

How many goals are expected in Leones de Rosario vs Club Mercedes?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Leones de Rosario 1.28 · Club Mercedes 0.75), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Leones de Rosario vs Club Mercedes?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.