Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 19/10, 20:00

Prediction: CA Lugano vs Canuelas FC

Team pages: CA Lugano · Canuelas FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

CA Lugano0.93

Canuelas FC1.2

1X2

27% 32% 41%

CA Lugano Draw Canuelas FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Lugano 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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Canuelas FC 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

CA Lugano 0–2 Canuelas FC (2 last)

Canuelas FC3-1CA Lugano
CA Lugano0-2Canuelas FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Lugano 1481 · Canuelas FC 1565

	CA Lugano	Draw	Canuelas FC
Our model	27%	32%	41%
Market	27%	32%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Canuelas FC (rating 1481 vs 1565).
H2H favours Canuelas FC: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Lugano	Canuelas FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.4	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.25

X2.80

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13%

Time*	1	X	2
22:38 +6’	3.25	2.80	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Lugano 0–0–2 Canuelas FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Canuelas FC	3-1 HT 2-1	CA Lugano
27/09/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Lugano	0-2 HT 0-0	Canuelas FC

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lujan	32	19	7	6	46	22	64
2	Canuelas FC	32	17	10	5	43	22	61
3	Deportivo Espanol	32	12	16	4	26	16	52
4	Leones de Rosario	32	13	12	7	31	25	51
5	Central Cordoba de Rosario	32	13	10	9	32	23	49
6	General Lamadrid	32	9	14	9	23	27	41
7	Sportivo Barracas	32	11	7	14	32	32	40
8	El Porvenir	32	8	16	8	28	32	40
9	Central Ballester	32	10	8	14	29	34	38
10	CA Atlas	32	9	10	13	24	29	37
11	CA Claypole	32	9	9	14	27	40	36
12	Yupanqui	32	8	11	13	33	36	35
13	Fenix	32	8	10	14	24	32	34
14	Deportivo Muniz	32	6	11	15	23	38	29

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Lugano	Canuelas FC
Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	1-1 D	1-2 L
Leones de Rosario	0-0 D	1-0 W
Lujan	1-2 L	3-2 W
Victoriano Arenas	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Canuelas FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Lugano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
04/10	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-3	3	8	L
26/09	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	7	D
20/09	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	8	7	D
12/09	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
06/09	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
22/08	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
16/08	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
09/08	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Canuelas FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	4-0	6	6	W
05/10	El Porvenir Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	2	6	D
27/09	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
21/09	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
12/09	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
06/09	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	3-2	1	8	W
31/08	General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	1	3	W
22/08	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
15/08	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-2	1-2	4	9	L
09/08	CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Lugano vs Canuelas FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Canuelas FC win (41%). Probabilities: CA Lugano 27%, draw 32%, Canuelas FC 41%.

How many goals are expected in CA Lugano vs Canuelas FC?

The model expects 2.13 goals (CA Lugano 0.93 · Canuelas FC 1.2), with a 55% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Lugano vs Canuelas FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.