Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 17/10, 22:00

Prediction: Deportivo La Guaira vs Trujillanos

Team pages: Deportivo La Guaira · Trujillanos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Deportivo La Guaira2

Trujillanos0.83

1X2

64% 22% 14%

Deportivo La Guaira Draw Trujillanos

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo La Guaira 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Trujillanos 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Deportivo La Guaira 3–2–1 Trujillanos (6 last)

Trujillanos0-1Deportivo La Guaira
Trujillanos0-2Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira1-2Trujillanos
Deportivo La Guaira2-0Trujillanos
Trujillanos1-1Deportivo La Guaira
Trujillanos1-1Deportivo La Guaira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo La Guaira 1502 · Trujillanos 1437

	Deportivo La Guaira	Draw	Trujillanos
Our model	64%	23%	14%
Market	64%	22%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo La Guaira (rating 1502 vs 1437).
H2H favours Deportivo La Guaira: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo La Guaira	Trujillanos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 2.6	2.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.00

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:26 +41’	1.40	4.00	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo La Guaira 3–2–1 Trujillanos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Trujillanos	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo La Guaira
22/11/20 Venezuela Primera Division	Trujillanos	0-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo La Guaira
20/10/20 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	1-2 HT 1-0	Trujillanos
19/11/19 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	2-0 HT 0-0	Trujillanos
15/11/19 Venezuela Primera Division	Trujillanos	1-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo La Guaira
20/10/19 Venezuela Primera Division	Trujillanos	1-1 HT 1-0	Deportivo La Guaira

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metropolitanos FC	12	10	1	1	28	9	31
2	Deportivo Tachira	12	8	2	2	28	15	26
3	Academia Puerto Cabello	12	6	4	2	16	9	22
4	Carabobo	12	6	3	3	13	8	21
5	Portuguesa	12	4	6	2	14	12	18
6	Deportivo La Guaira	12	5	2	5	21	16	17
7	Monagas	12	5	2	5	14	14	17
8	Estudiantes Merida	12	4	4	4	13	14	16
9	UCV	12	4	3	5	13	15	15
10	Caracas	12	3	5	4	13	15	14
11	Trujillanos	12	3	2	7	12	19	11
12	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	12	3	2	7	17	27	11
13	Zamora	12	2	2	8	11	25	8
14	Academia Anzoategui FC	12	1	2	9	6	21	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo La Guaira	Trujillanos
Portuguesa	0-0 D	0-1 L
Deportivo Tachira	2-4 L	1-3 L
Academia Anzoategui FC	2-0 W	0-0 D
Academia Puerto Cabello	1-1 D	0-1 L
Estudiantes Merida	1-2 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	4-1 W	2-4 L
Zamora	6-1 W	2-1 W
Caracas	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo La Guaira (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo La Guaira

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
20/09	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-3	2-4	2	6	L
16/09	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
12/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
07/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
04/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
31/08	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
22/08	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	4-1	0	12	W
17/08	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	4-0	6-1	–	–	W
11/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-1	1	7	W

Trujillanos

LLDWLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
20/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
17/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-3	2-4	6	5	L
13/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	2-1	9	5	W
06/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
04/09	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-4	7	2	L
30/08	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
21/08	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
16/08	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
09/08	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-3	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo La Guaira vs Trujillanos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo La Guaira win (64%). Probabilities: Deportivo La Guaira 64%, draw 22%, Trujillanos 14%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo La Guaira vs Trujillanos?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Deportivo La Guaira 2 · Trujillanos 0.83), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo La Guaira vs Trujillanos?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.