Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 21/10, 00:00

Prediction: Tacuary vs Independiente FBC

Team pages: Tacuary · Independiente FBC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Tacuary1.19

Independiente FBC1.7

1X2

26% 26% 48%

Tacuary Draw Independiente FBC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Tacuary 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLDWLL

Independiente FBC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Tacuary 3–1–2 Independiente FBC (6 last)

Independiente FBC2-2Tacuary
Tacuary1-0Independiente FBC
Independiente FBC0-1Tacuary
Independiente FBC0-2Tacuary
Tacuary1-3Independiente FBC
Independiente FBC3-1Tacuary

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tacuary 1439 · Independiente FBC 1554

	Tacuary	Draw	Independiente FBC
Our model	26%	26%	48%
Market	26%	25%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente FBC (rating 1439 vs 1554).
H2H favours Tacuary: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tacuary	Independiente FBC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.5	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.50

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:40 +2’	3.40	3.50	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tacuary 3–1–2 Independiente FBC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/07/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	2-2 HT 1-2	Tacuary
20/08/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Tacuary	1-0 HT 1-0	Independiente FBC
14/05/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	0-1 HT 0-0	Tacuary
17/09/21 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	0-2 HT 0-1	Tacuary
13/06/21 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Tacuary	1-3	Independiente FBC
24/07/15 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	3-1	Tacuary

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	General Caballero JLM	28	17	5	6	56	34	56
2	Deportivo Santaní	28	17	3	8	47	27	54
3	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	28	14	9	5	37	28	51
4	Independiente FBC	28	11	10	7	43	35	43
5	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	28	12	6	10	43	38	42
6	Carapegua	29	12	6	11	37	43	42
7	Sol de America	28	9	14	5	35	29	41
8	Paraguari AC	28	12	5	11	40	37	41
9	Resistencia FC	29	10	9	10	34	34	39
10	Club Atlético Tembetary	28	10	6	12	39	45	36
11	Fernando de la Mora	28	9	7	12	32	40	34
12	Deportivo Capiata	28	7	11	10	34	38	32
13	3 de Noviembre	28	7	8	13	36	42	29
14	Guairena FC	28	7	7	14	23	36	28
15	Tacuary	28	4	12	12	32	47	24
16	Encarnacion FC	28	6	4	18	25	40	22

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tacuary	Independiente FBC
Club Atlético Tembetary	2-3 L	3-0 W
Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	2-1 W	3-2 W
Carapegua	0-0 D	0-1 L
12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	1-2 L	4-0 W
Encarnacion FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Deportivo Santaní	0-3 L	2-1 W
Fernando de la Mora	1-1 D	0-0 D
3 de Noviembre	0-1 L	2-5 L
General Caballero JLM	1-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 5 L	5 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente FBC (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tacuary

LLDLDLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-4	8	5	L
03/10	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	2-3	3	4	L
26/09	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-1	1	7	W
20/09	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
16/09	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
09/09	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
05/09	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-3	9	3	L
29/08	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	4	7	D
23/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
18/08	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-4	2	4	L

Independiente FBC

WDLDWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
06/10	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
25/09	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
20/09	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	4-0	3	1	W
15/09	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
09/09	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
04/09	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
28/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-3	2-5	7	4	L
22/08	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-1	7	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tacuary vs Independiente FBC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente FBC win (48%). Probabilities: Tacuary 26%, draw 26%, Independiente FBC 48%.

How many goals are expected in Tacuary vs Independiente FBC?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Tacuary 1.19 · Independiente FBC 1.7), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tacuary vs Independiente FBC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.