Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 17/10, 00:00

Prediction: Carapegua vs Resistencia FC

Team pages: Carapegua · Resistencia FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

Carapegua1.37

Resistencia FC1.08

1X2

43% 28% 29%

Carapegua Draw Resistencia FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Carapegua 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWDWDW

Resistencia FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLLLWD

Head-to-head

Carapegua 3–2–0 Resistencia FC (5 last)

Resistencia FC1-1Carapegua
Resistencia FC1-1Carapegua
Carapegua2-1Resistencia FC
Carapegua2-1Resistencia FC
Resistencia FC1-2Carapegua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carapegua 1535 · Resistencia FC 1468

	Carapegua	Draw	Resistencia FC
Our model	42%	30%	28%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carapegua (rating 1535 vs 1468).
H2H favours Carapegua: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carapegua	Resistencia FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.2	1.6 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	2.80 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.04 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:38 +8’	2.20	3.30	2.80
13:20 +10’	2.25▲	3.30	2.70▼
15:21 +9’	2.05▼	3.40▲	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:13 +7’	2.39	3.05	2.64
13:27 +3’	2.49▲	3.24▲	2.41▼
14:20 +71’	2.03▼	3.34▲	3.00▲
22:00 +43’	2.05▲	3.39▲	3.04▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Carapegua 3–2–0 Resistencia FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
10/07/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Resistencia FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Carapegua
21/08/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Resistencia FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Carapegua
15/05/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	2-1 HT 1-1	Resistencia FC
12/08/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	2-1 HT 2-0	Resistencia FC
06/05/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Resistencia FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Carapegua

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	General Caballero JLM	28	17	5	6	56	34	56
2	Deportivo Santaní	28	17	3	8	47	27	54
3	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	28	14	9	5	37	28	51
4	Independiente FBC	28	11	10	7	43	35	43
5	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	27	12	6	9	42	35	42
6	Carapegua	28	12	6	10	36	41	42
7	Sol de America	28	9	14	5	35	29	41
8	Paraguari AC	28	12	5	11	40	37	41
9	Club Atlético Tembetary	28	10	6	12	39	45	36
10	Resistencia FC	28	9	9	10	32	33	36
11	Fernando de la Mora	28	9	7	12	32	40	34
12	Deportivo Capiata	27	6	11	10	31	37	29
13	3 de Noviembre	28	7	8	13	36	42	29
14	Guairena FC	28	7	7	14	23	36	28
15	Tacuary	28	4	12	12	32	47	24
16	Encarnacion FC	28	6	4	18	25	40	22

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carapegua	Resistencia FC
Sol de America	4-2 W	0-0 D
Deportivo Capiata	1-1 D	1-0 W
Paraguari AC	2-3 L	0-1 L
12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	1-0 W	1-1 D
Encarnacion FC	1-3 L	3-0 W
Deportivo Santaní	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Resistencia FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carapegua

LLWLWWDWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	4-2	4	9	W
02/10	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
25/09	Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
20/09	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
15/09	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
10/09	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
04/09	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	2-3	3	4	L
30/08	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
23/08	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	1-3	2	3	L
16/08	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-2	5	3	L

Resistencia FC

WDLWLLLLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
02/10	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	3-0	2	5	W
27/09	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-2	7	6	L
19/09	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
12/09	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	1-2	7	5	L
09/09	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	1-2	1	4	L
05/09	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-1	5	10	W
31/08	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
21/08	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
16/08	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-0	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carapegua vs Resistencia FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carapegua win (43%). Probabilities: Carapegua 43%, draw 28%, Resistencia FC 29%.

How many goals are expected in Carapegua vs Resistencia FC?

The model expects 2.45 goals (Carapegua 1.37 · Resistencia FC 1.08), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Carapegua vs Resistencia FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.