Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 30/10, 23:00

Prediction: Real Potosi vs Independiente Petrolero

Team pages: Real Potosi · Independiente Petrolero

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Real Potosi2.01

Independiente Petrolero0.79

1X2

65% 21% 14%

Real Potosi Draw Independiente Petrolero

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Potosi 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLDWWWWL

Independiente Petrolero 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLLDW

Head-to-head

Real Potosi 2–3 Independiente Petrolero (5 last)

Independiente Petrolero1-2Real Potosi
Real Potosi2-1Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero2-0Real Potosi
Real Potosi0-5Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero2-1Real Potosi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Potosi 1571 · Independiente Petrolero 1514

	Real Potosi	Draw	Independiente Petrolero
Our model	65%	22%	13%
Market	66%	20%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Potosi (rating 1571 vs 1514).
H2H favours Independiente Petrolero: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Potosi	Independiente Petrolero
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.6	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.4	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.7	3.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.50

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:58 +2’	1.38	4.50	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Potosi 2–0–3 Independiente Petrolero

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/07/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Independiente Petrolero	1-2 HT 1-1	Real Potosi
09/03/26 America Friendlies	Real Potosi	2-1 HT 0-1	Independiente Petrolero
06/03/26 America Friendlies	Independiente Petrolero	2-0 HT 0-0	Real Potosi
02/12/21 Bolivia Apertura	Real Potosi	0-5 HT 0-3	Independiente Petrolero
04/08/21 Bolivia Apertura	Independiente Petrolero	2-1 HT 1-1	Real Potosi

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	23	17	3	3	58	23	54
2	Always Ready	23	15	6	2	55	16	51
3	The Strongest	23	13	6	4	42	26	45
4	Real Potosi	23	10	8	5	30	16	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	23	11	4	8	40	29	37
6	Club Aurora	23	8	10	5	34	30	34
7	Nacional Potosi	23	9	4	10	35	31	31
8	Guabira	23	8	6	9	34	47	30
9	Independiente Petrolero	23	8	5	10	31	39	29
10	Blooming	23	6	10	7	31	25	28
11	Real Oruro	23	8	3	12	37	56	27
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	23	7	3	13	24	43	24
13	Universitario De Vinto	23	6	3	14	30	45	21
14	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	23	6	2	15	33	51	20
15	Real Tomayapo	23	5	5	13	16	40	20
16	GV San Jose	23	4	8	11	27	40	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Potosi	Independiente Petrolero
San Antonio Bulo Bulo	1-2 L	1-3 L
Academia de Balompie Boliviano	1-0 W	4-2 W
The Strongest	1-0 W	2-1 W
Guabira	1-1 D	3-1 W
Always Ready	1-1 D	0-2 L
Blooming	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Real Potosi (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Potosi

WDDLDWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
16/10	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
11/10	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
15/09	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
12/09	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	3	9	W
05/09	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
27/08	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	4	9	L
22/08	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
16/08	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
09/08	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-0	9	4	W

Independiente Petrolero

WWLWLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	3-1	4-2	2	3	W
18/10	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
12/10	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
19/09	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-3	7	0	L
13/09	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
06/09	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	0-4	0	6	L
28/08	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
23/08	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
17/08	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
08/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	2-1	1	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Potosi vs Independiente Petrolero?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Potosi win (65%). Probabilities: Real Potosi 65%, draw 21%, Independiente Petrolero 14%.

How many goals are expected in Real Potosi vs Independiente Petrolero?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Real Potosi 2.01 · Independiente Petrolero 0.79), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Potosi vs Independiente Petrolero?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.