Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 08/11, 22:15

Prediction: Bolivar vs The Strongest

Team pages: Bolivar · The Strongest

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

Bolivar2.35

The Strongest1.29

1X2

61% 20% 19%

Bolivar Draw The Strongest

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Bolivar 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

The Strongest 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWLWLW

Head-to-head

Bolivar 2–4–0 The Strongest (6 last)

The Strongest1-1Bolivar
Bolivar4-2The Strongest
The Strongest1-1Bolivar
Bolivar0-0The Strongest
The Strongest2-2Bolivar
The Strongest2-3Bolivar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bolivar 1658 · The Strongest 1510

	Bolivar	Draw	The Strongest
Our model	60%	21%	19%
Market	61%	20%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bolivar (rating 1658 vs 1510).
H2H favours Bolivar: 2-4-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bolivar	The Strongest
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 0.9	2.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.2	3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.75

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 14:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.53▼	Pinn 1.55 ★
X	4.10 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75
2	3.40 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
22:30 +4’	1.83	4.10	3.40
09:14 +4’	1.73▼	4.20▲	3.75▲
15:19 +5’	1.75▲	4.33▲	3.75
21:40 +4’	1.70▼	4.33	3.90▲
23:53 +2’	1.60▼	4.50▲	4.50▲
14:50 +3’	1.53▼	4.75▲	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:33 +33’	1.47	4.22	4.81
23:36 +19’	1.45▼	4.40▲	5.28▲
08:37 +45’	1.51▲	4.05▼	4.56▼
10:18 +61’	1.53▲	4.17▲	4.71▲
16:25 +5’	1.55▲	4.11▼	4.59▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bolivar 2–4–0 The Strongest

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/09/26 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	The Strongest	1-1 HT 1-1	Bolivar
30/08/26 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Bolivar	4-2 HT 3-1	The Strongest
12/07/26 Bolivia Primera Division	The Strongest	1-1 HT 1-1	Bolivar
07/02/26 America Friendlies	Bolivar	0-0 HT 0-0	The Strongest
31/01/26 America Friendlies	The Strongest	2-2 HT 0-1	Bolivar
30/11/25 Bolivia Primera Division	The Strongest	2-3 HT 1-3	Bolivar

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	24	18	3	3	60	24	57
2	Always Ready	25	17	6	2	61	19	57
3	The Strongest	24	14	6	4	46	28	48
4	Real Potosi	24	10	9	5	31	17	39
5	Oriente Petrolero	24	11	5	8	41	30	38
6	Club Aurora	24	8	11	5	35	31	35
7	Guabira	25	9	6	10	40	50	33
8	Nacional Potosi	24	9	5	10	36	32	32
9	Real Oruro	25	9	4	12	41	58	31
10	Blooming	24	7	10	7	33	26	31
11	Independiente Petrolero	25	8	6	11	32	42	30
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	25	8	3	14	28	50	27
13	Real Tomayapo	25	6	5	14	19	42	23
14	Universitario De Vinto	24	6	3	15	31	48	21
15	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	25	6	2	17	37	57	20
16	GV San Jose	25	4	8	13	30	47	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bolivar	The Strongest
Guabira	2-1 W	1-3 L
Universitario De Vinto	2-1 W	4-3 W
GV San Jose	4-2 W	4-2 W
Real Tomayapo	2-1 W	3-1 W
Academia de Balompie Boliviano	4-1 W	2-1 W
Real Oruro	4-2 W	5-0 W
San Antonio Bulo Bulo	4-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 0 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bolivar

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
27/10	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	2-1	12	7	W
18/10	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
12/10	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-0	9	6	W
18/09	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	3-0	4-2	10	5	W
14/09	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
06/09	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	4-0	4	6	W
28/08	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	4-1	5	3	W
23/08	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	4-2	6	5	W
15/08	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	4-1	6	3	W

The Strongest

LWWWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	4-2	3	6	W
26/10	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
18/10	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
11/10	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
15/09	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	2-1	4	9	W
12/09	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	5-0	8	2	W
07/09	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	3-1	10	4	W
26/08	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
22/08	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	2-2	4-3	3	5	W
15/08	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-3	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bolivar vs The Strongest?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bolivar win (61%). Probabilities: Bolivar 61%, draw 20%, The Strongest 19%.

How many goals are expected in Bolivar vs The Strongest?

The model expects 3.64 goals (Bolivar 2.35 · The Strongest 1.29), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bolivar vs The Strongest?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.