Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 07/11, 00:00

Prediction: Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo

Team pages: Independiente Petrolero · Real Tomayapo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Independiente Petrolero1.97

Real Tomayapo0.95

1X2

61% 22% 17%

Independiente Petrolero Draw Real Tomayapo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Petrolero 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLLDWD

Real Tomayapo 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLLDWL

Head-to-head

Independiente Petrolero 2–1–3 Real Tomayapo (6 last)

Independiente Petrolero5-1Real Tomayapo
Real Tomayapo3-0Independiente Petrolero
Real Tomayapo2-1Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero5-2Real Tomayapo
Real Tomayapo2-1Independiente Petrolero
Real Tomayapo0-0Independiente Petrolero

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Petrolero 1518 · Real Tomayapo 1460

	Independiente Petrolero	Draw	Real Tomayapo
Our model	60%	23%	17%
Market	61%	22%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Petrolero (rating 1518 vs 1460).
H2H favours Real Tomayapo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Petrolero	Real Tomayapo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	0.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.5	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.20

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:09 +4’	1.50	4.20	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Petrolero 2–1–3 Real Tomayapo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/09/26 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Independiente Petrolero	5-1 HT 4-0	Real Tomayapo
01/09/26 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Real Tomayapo	3-0 HT 2-0	Independiente Petrolero
13/07/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Real Tomayapo	2-1 HT 0-0	Independiente Petrolero
09/02/26 America Friendlies	Independiente Petrolero	5-2 HT 3-0	Real Tomayapo
05/02/26 America Friendlies	Real Tomayapo	2-1 HT 1-0	Independiente Petrolero
30/01/26 America Friendlies	Real Tomayapo	0-0	Independiente Petrolero

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	24	18	3	3	60	24	57
2	Always Ready	24	16	6	2	58	17	54
3	The Strongest	24	14	6	4	46	28	48
4	Real Potosi	24	10	9	5	31	17	39
5	Oriente Petrolero	24	11	5	8	41	30	38
6	Club Aurora	24	8	11	5	35	31	35
7	Nacional Potosi	24	9	5	10	36	32	32
8	Independiente Petrolero	24	8	6	10	32	40	30
9	Guabira	24	8	6	10	35	49	30
10	Real Oruro	24	8	4	12	38	57	28
11	Blooming	23	6	10	7	31	25	28
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	24	8	3	13	27	45	27
13	Universitario De Vinto	24	6	3	15	31	48	21
14	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	24	6	2	16	35	54	20
15	Real Tomayapo	23	5	5	13	16	40	20
16	GV San Jose	24	4	8	12	29	44	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Petrolero	Real Tomayapo
Real Potosi	1-1 D	1-0 W
Always Ready	0-2 L	1-1 D
San Antonio Bulo Bulo	1-3 L	0-0 D
Universitario De Vinto	1-3 L	1-0 W
Bolivar	0-4 L	1-2 L
GV San Jose	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Tomayapo (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente Petrolero

WLWLLLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
25/10	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	3-1	4-2	2	3	W
18/10	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
12/10	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
19/09	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-3	7	0	L
13/09	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
06/09	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	0-4	0	6	L
28/08	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
23/08	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
17/08	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-0	2	6	W

Real Tomayapo

LWDWLLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
17/10	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
09/10	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
18/09	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
14/09	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
07/09	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-3	1	4	L
27/08	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
24/08	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	0	D
14/08	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
08/08	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Petrolero win (61%). Probabilities: Independiente Petrolero 61%, draw 22%, Real Tomayapo 17%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Independiente Petrolero 1.97 · Real Tomayapo 0.95), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.