Football · South Africa Diski Challenge · 08/11, 09:00
Prediction: Sekhukhune United Reserves vs Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Team pages: Sekhukhune United Reserves · Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.83Total
Sekhukhune United Reserves1.44
Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves1.39
1X2
Sekhukhune United Reserves
Draw
Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sekhukhune United Reserves
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sekhukhune United Reserves
1–2–3
Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
(6 last)
- Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves2-0Sekhukhune United Reserves
- Sekhukhune United Reserves1-1Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
- Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves1-0Sekhukhune United Reserves
- Sekhukhune United Reserves1-0Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
- Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves1-0Sekhukhune United Reserves
- Sekhukhune United Reserves2-2Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sekhukhune United Reserves 1521 · Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 1572
| Sekhukhune United Reserves | Draw | Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves (rating 1521 vs 1572).
- H2H favours Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sekhukhune United Reserves | Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.4 | 2.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 1.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 56/22/22% | 78/11/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.4 | 2.7 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sekhukhune United Reserves 1–2–3 Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 South Africa Diski Challenge | Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sekhukhune United Reserves |
| 11/01/26 South Africa Diski Challenge | Sekhukhune United Reserves | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves |
| 26/04/25 South Africa Diski Challenge | Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Sekhukhune United Reserves |
| 14/04/24 South Africa Diski Challenge | Sekhukhune United Reserves | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves |
| 18/03/23 South Africa Diski Challenge | Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Sekhukhune United Reserves |
| 01/10/22 South Africa Reserve League | Sekhukhune United Reserves | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves |
Standings · South Africa Diski Challenge
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaizer Chiefs Reserves | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Sekhukhune United Reserves | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Golden Arrows Reserves | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 12 |
| 4 | TS Galaxy Reserves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 |
| 5 | Orlando Pirates Reserves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 10 |
| 6 | Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 10 |
| 7 | Amazulu Reserves | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 8 | Siwelele FC Reserves | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| 9 | Stellenbosch FC Reserves | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| 10 | Richards Bay FC Reserves | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 |
| 11 | Polokwane City Reserves | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Durban City Reserves | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 7 |
| 13 | Milford FC Reserves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
| 14 | Chippa United Reserves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 5 |
| 15 | Kruger United Reserves | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
| 16 | Marumo Gallants Reserves | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sekhukhune United Reserves | Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves |
|---|---|---|
| Orlando Pirates Reserves | 0-5 L | 0-2 L |
| Richards Bay FC Reserves | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Durban City Reserves | 2-0 W | 4-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sekhukhune United Reserves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Orlando Pirates Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
0-3 | 0-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 25/10 | Richards Bay FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/10 | Durban City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 04/10 | Marumo Gallants Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 26/09 | Siwelele FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Richards Bay FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Siwelele FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Marumo Gallants Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
1-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Stellenbosch FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Amazulu Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Polokwane City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 25/10 | Chippa United Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/10 | TS Galaxy Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 04/10 | Kaizer Chiefs Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
2-0 | 2-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 26/09 | Durban City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
2-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Orlando Pirates Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Kaizer Chiefs Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Richards Bay FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 21/04 | Polokwane City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Chippa United Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge |
2-1 | 3-2 | 12 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sekhukhune United Reserves vs Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sekhukhune United Reserves win (38%). Probabilities: Sekhukhune United Reserves 38%, draw 27%, Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 35%.
How many goals are expected in Sekhukhune United Reserves vs Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves?
The model expects 2.83 goals (Sekhukhune United Reserves 1.44 · Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 1.39), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sekhukhune United Reserves vs Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.