Football · South Africa Diski Challenge · 14/11, 14:00

Prediction: Richards Bay FC Reserves vs Orlando Pirates Reserves

Team pages: Richards Bay FC Reserves · Orlando Pirates Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Richards Bay FC Reserves0.77

Orlando Pirates Reserves1.74

1X2

16% 23% 61%

Richards Bay FC Reserves Draw Orlando Pirates Reserves

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Richards Bay FC Reserves 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Orlando Pirates Reserves 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Richards Bay FC Reserves 0–2–4 Orlando Pirates Reserves (6 last)

Richards Bay FC Reserves0-1Orlando Pirates Reserves
Orlando Pirates Reserves2-0Richards Bay FC Reserves
Richards Bay FC Reserves0-1Orlando Pirates Reserves
Orlando Pirates Reserves1-1Richards Bay FC Reserves
Richards Bay FC Reserves0-0Orlando Pirates Reserves
Orlando Pirates Reserves2-0Richards Bay FC Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Richards Bay FC Reserves 1485 · Orlando Pirates Reserves 1584

	Richards Bay FC Reserves	Draw	Orlando Pirates Reserves
Our model	15%	25%	60%
Market	17%	22%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Orlando Pirates Reserves (rating 1485 vs 1584).
H2H favours Orlando Pirates Reserves: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Richards Bay FC Reserves	Orlando Pirates Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	2.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/33/17%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.1	2.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	4.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.10

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:45 +24’	5.25	4.10	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Richards Bay FC Reserves 0–2–4 Orlando Pirates Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 South Africa Diski Challenge	Richards Bay FC Reserves	0-1 HT 0-1	Orlando Pirates Reserves
22/11/25 South Africa Diski Challenge	Orlando Pirates Reserves	2-0 HT 1-0	Richards Bay FC Reserves
23/02/25 South Africa Diski Challenge	Richards Bay FC Reserves	0-1 HT 0-0	Orlando Pirates Reserves
09/11/24 South Africa Diski Challenge	Orlando Pirates Reserves	1-1 HT 0-1	Richards Bay FC Reserves
06/05/23 South Africa Diski Challenge	Richards Bay FC Reserves	0-0 HT 0-0	Orlando Pirates Reserves
28/01/23 South Africa Diski Challenge	Orlando Pirates Reserves	2-0 HT 0-0	Richards Bay FC Reserves

Standings · South Africa Diski Challenge

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kaizer Chiefs Reserves	7	7	0	0	22	6	21
2	Golden Arrows Reserves	7	5	0	2	19	8	15
3	Orlando Pirates Reserves	7	4	1	2	16	8	13
4	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	6	4	1	1	14	9	13
5	Sekhukhune United Reserves	7	4	1	2	12	9	13
6	TS Galaxy Reserves	7	3	2	2	6	6	11
7	Amazulu Reserves	7	3	1	3	9	7	10
8	Siwelele FC Reserves	7	3	1	3	5	5	10
9	Stellenbosch FC Reserves	7	3	1	3	11	14	10
10	Richards Bay FC Reserves	7	3	0	4	6	8	9
11	Polokwane City Reserves	7	2	1	4	8	10	7
12	Durban City Reserves	7	2	1	4	5	12	7
13	Milford FC Reserves	7	1	2	4	6	10	5
14	Chippa United Reserves	7	1	2	4	8	22	5
15	Kruger United Reserves	6	1	1	4	5	9	4
16	Marumo Gallants Reserves	7	1	1	5	10	19	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Richards Bay FC Reserves	Orlando Pirates Reserves
Kruger United Reserves	3-1 W	1-1 D
Sekhukhune United Reserves	0-3 L	5-0 W
Golden Arrows Reserves	0-1 L	1-0 W
Kaizer Chiefs Reserves	0-1 L	2-3 L
Polokwane City Reserves	3-0 W	2-1 W
Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Orlando Pirates Reserves (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Richards Bay FC Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Kruger United Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	3-1	–	–	W
01/11	Marumo Gallants Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
25/10	Sekhukhune United Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	0-3	–	–	L
17/10	Golden Arrows Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
10/10	Kaizer Chiefs Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	Amazulu Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	0-2	1	1	L
27/09	Milford FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
09/05	Sekhukhune United Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	4-0	2	4	W
03/05	Polokwane City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-0	3-0	2	5	W
26/04	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-2	0-2	3	1	L

Orlando Pirates Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Polokwane City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-0	2-1	5	5	W
31/10	Sekhukhune United Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	3-0	5-0	3	1	W
24/10	Golden Arrows Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
18/10	Kruger United Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-1	1-1	10	3	D
10/10	Siwelele FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-1	1-2	6	2	L
03/10	Stellenbosch FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	4-1	2	8	W
27/09	Kaizer Chiefs Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-3	2-3	4	6	L
09/05	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	2-0	1	1	W
02/05	Chippa United Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-0	2-0	9	8	W
25/04	Magesi FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	2-1	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Richards Bay FC Reserves vs Orlando Pirates Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Orlando Pirates Reserves win (61%). Probabilities: Richards Bay FC Reserves 16%, draw 23%, Orlando Pirates Reserves 61%.

How many goals are expected in Richards Bay FC Reserves vs Orlando Pirates Reserves?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Richards Bay FC Reserves 0.77 · Orlando Pirates Reserves 1.74), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Richards Bay FC Reserves vs Orlando Pirates Reserves?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.